• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Archive Severe threat April 26-27, 2011

gawxnative
Posted 26 April 2011 - 09:55 PM

Well a question reference tomorrow for AL/TN/GA.. What can we look for as far as cell velocities or speeds..(35-45 MPH or 55+)
 
mwbwhorton
Posted 26 April 2011 - 09:56 PM

Monroe look out tornado warning now in effect...tornadic supercell about to enter ouachita parish....
 
weunice
Posted 26 April 2011 - 09:57 PM

I got in a discussion today with someone in Monroe about how the valley doesn't split thunderstorms and keep Monroe safe. I hope he doesn't get a object lesson tonight.
 
Jason Echols
Posted 26 April 2011 - 09:58 PM

Tunica getting rocked in a TOR Warning as we speak.
 
EquusStorm
Posted 26 April 2011 - 09:59 PM

So the Vilonia area tornado was given a preliminary rating of EF-2? Heh, I figured the damage would be slightly less devastating than originally feared... still could easily go up to EF-3 once they have a break in the storms to do a thorough survey. Still, that's a lot of deaths in one little area. :[ Maybe there won't be any fatalities confirmed from today's event.

Also, adding to everyone else's thoughts... tomorrow's parameters scare me a lot, heh. Doesn't look like Walker county will escape from this one unscathed.
 
mwbwhorton
Posted 26 April 2011 - 10:00 PM

weunice, on 26 April 2011 - 09:57 PM, said:

I got in a discussion today with someone in Monroe about how the valley doesn't split thunderstorms and keep Monroe safe. I hope he doesn't get a object lesson tonight.
Click to expand...

ive been told due to an old indian legend Monroe is safe from twisters too.....
 
ALhurricane
Posted 26 April 2011 - 10:00 PM

Fred Gossage, on 26 April 2011 - 09:53 PM, said:

We're already seeing a gradual degredation of the activity across northern Louisiana (as compared to earlier, I know there are still fully warranted warnings there). With the advection of 700-mb temperatures as high as 10 deg C from the south and southwest overnight across MS/AL, I think this weakening/shrinking trend will continue. I remain unconvinced that there will be problems with the warm sector being contaminated south of the TN line tomorrow... and I still think it's quite possible that the low-level jet axis clears for destabilization further north tomorrow also.
Click to expand...


The 00z NAM shows a solid cap near 700 mb across most of AL tomorrow. In fact, the NAM keeps all but extreme northern AL dry through 00z.
 
JJJackson
Posted 26 April 2011 - 10:06 PM

Four large explosions just now in the Cooper-Young area of Memphis - all power is out.
 
mwbwhorton
Posted 26 April 2011 - 10:09 PM

No information nothing....tv stations are not doing any kind of special reports status quo as if nothing is happening typical Monroe....
 
mwbwhorton
Posted 26 April 2011 - 10:13 PM

Finally something met came on and gave direction of movement and said if there is a tornado it is likely rain wrapped...
 
Fred Gossage
Posted 26 April 2011 - 10:15 PM

storm5, on 26 April 2011 - 10:11 PM, said:

Fred what are thoughts on the cap tomorrow??
Click to expand...


It will weaken, and then break, during the afternoon. However... the capping for tonight is increasing with time. I don't expect storms to our west to hang on in here.
 
steveklein
Posted 26 April 2011 - 10:19 PM

could you give me a college level explanation of what exactly a cap is, and how to identify it on the sounding graphs that get posted?
 
Fred Gossage
Posted 26 April 2011 - 10:21 PM

steveklein, on 26 April 2011 - 10:19 PM, said:

could you give me a college level explanation of what exactly a cap is, and how to identify it on the sounding graphs that get posted?
Click to expand...


The cap is an inversion in the low to mid-levels where the temperature increases with height in a layer. This puts a lid on the atmosphere, and can delay thunderstorm development. To see a cap on a sounding... you will look at the temperature plot... and when you see it kink rightward, warmer, in a layer above the ground.. that's also often associated with a sharp change to dry air... that is your capping inversion.

That rightward nudge on the temp plot near 850-mb in the sounding below... that's the cap.

<<image not saved>>
Edited by Fred Gossage, 26 April 2011 - 10:24 PM.

 
steveklein
Posted 26 April 2011 - 10:25 PM

and i guess the cap "burns" off almost like fog... as the atmosphere heats, the amount of energy overcomes that cap, as well as the cap just naturally dispersing?
 
mwbwhorton
Posted 26 April 2011 - 10:25 PM

So far no reports of damage locally but this could change in the blink of aneye so said the local tv mets
 
Fred Gossage
Posted 26 April 2011 - 10:26 PM

steveklein, on 26 April 2011 - 10:25 PM, said:

and i guess the cap "burns" off almost like fog... as the atmosphere heats, the amount of energy overcomes that cap, as well as the cap just naturally dispersing?
Click to expand...


The cap can be overcome by adding heat and moisture to the air below it... by cooling the layer that is capped itself (either by advection or by attempts at convection that introduce moisture into the drier capping layer... and evaporational cooling takes place)... or dynamic lift associated with a storm system.
 
weatherguy
Posted 26 April 2011 - 10:31 PM

I put together some maps from the 21z SREF:
Crazy high numbers!
sev102.jpg sev101.jpg sev100.jpg
 
mwbwhorton
Posted 26 April 2011 - 10:36 PM

OK guys im in a tornado warning now will report back after warning expires...
 
steveklein
Posted 26 April 2011 - 10:38 PM

radar estimating 4-8" inches of rain across many areas across arkansas and portions of the Mississippi Valley over the last 25 hours, and looking at radar, it appears many of these areas will get heavy rain for many, many more hours.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top