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Severe WX Severe threat 3/30-3/31

ColdFront said:
Probably due to how fast they’re congealing, which has to do with the deep shear vectors in relation to the initiating boundary. I’m actually a little surprised, the trough is broader based so you would expect relatively weaker forcing for storms to go up, unless the cap and EML is weaker or non-existent than what was showing up previously on the models.
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Even so. I would not want to mess with that lol. 12Z-20250330_HRRRMW_con_uphlysw6-1-15-70-100.gif12Z-20250330_HRRRMW_prec_radar-0-15-70-100.gif
 
wx_guy said:
Yeah, with the latest UH tracks, that QLCS is gonna be something to watch carefully for tornadoes. Monday may wind up being the star of this show.


View attachment 37729
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Yeah, but I referencing more towards the supercell/multi-cell potential tonight for North MS than a squall event. Sorry about that. But yes, Monday seems to be interesting in it's own way as well.
 
Equus said:
Just as a statistical note, this is by a very substantial margin the largest enhanced risk ever issued by the SPC since they started the five tier system that introduced the enhanced risk

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I'd forgotten the risk area was that large on 4/9/15 (Rochelle EF4 day). We're coming up on the 10th anniversary of that (tied with Pilger day the year prior for my most painful chase fail).

I'd also forgotten that in the initial Day 1 outlook, Rochelle was only just barely clipped by the northwest corner of the 5%. I'd remembered SPC's forecast for that day as being pretty spot on, but that's because I was only remembering the 1630Z (second update), which had the upgrade.
 
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ILN's 11:30a disco not ruling out the possibility of the cincy area seeing the tail end of a long-track supercell. Currently overcast and wet just north of the ohio river, it remains to be seen if the sun will get any opportunity to break through between now and evening time.

Wind fields increase ahead of this system with surface dew points
increasing into the lower and even middle 60s in the warm sector.
This will result in the development of a corridor of moderate
instability ahead of the cold front. Convective development is
expected to our west during the early to mid afternoon hours, and
then spread quickly east. Favorable bulk shear will support organized
convection. Initially, discrete storms are expected to develop and
then quickly transition into a linear or multi-storm cluster mode.

There is some question to how far east discrete storms make it prior
to becoming more linear. The discrete storms(supercells) will have a
large hail and a strong tornado threat - with the highest potential
from the tri-state region and southwest. The threat for damaging
winds and possible embedded tornadoes will persist with the linear
feature due to the favorable low level shear thru the mid to late
evening hours. Eventually the convection will weaken as it tracks
across the Upper Ohio Valley and instability decreases overnight.
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Pretty much all the CAMs except the NAM anticipate a southern-dominant storm mode on Monday, with a low or zero threat for northern Georgia, and potentially much of northern Alabama. There'll be no shortage of instability and at least marginal kinematics, so storms that maintain themselves could easily become severe, but the models just don't seem that interested in the northern portions of AL/GA. We shall see.
models-2025033012-f048.uh03_max.us_se.gif1743350965562.png1743350971365.png1743350992424.png1743351006804.png1743351011617.png
 
Latest results of my WRF-ARW model. Centered on Memphis, TN. Uses GFS initial conditions from 18z yesterday (I pulled the data before the 0z was out). It is 3 km high resolution and covers about an 1100 mile square area. It goes out only 36 hours (to 06z tomorrow morning), but I'll have another run for tomorrow ready later today.


A *very* short period of discrete activity across AR/MO/TN/KY junction rapidly develops into a linear system overnight. Here it is at 06z tomorrow morning.

1743348274700.png







The SBCAPE is very high for overnight/morning activity (over 2k). Not sure why the edges on this one are clipped *shrug*

1743348402146.png



The instantaneous UH is shown below. Notice several spots of moderate rotation in MS, and a large swath of high rotation in eastern Kentucky,

1743348648384.png



Another look at the radar, but with the Threat Overlay algorithm plotted This is again at 06Z tomorrow morning. The algorithm (despite the rotation aloft in MS and KY) only detects threats of Limited Large Hail potential in Louisiana. (Not sure I buy this, but we'll see.)

radar_threat033025.png


I will be running a new model run shortly probably using the 12z runs as initial conditions and will probably center it on MS/AL/GA to get the picture for tonight and Monday a bit better.

(And I gotta check on why images are being clipped on the edges, something with my code probably needs updating.)
 
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