Severe WX Severe threat 3/30-3/31

[Todd]

I certainly do not want a severe weather outbreak that could damage property or cause injury or loss of life. Many people in eastern Missouri and eastern Arkansas experienced it not that long ago.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I would argue the way SPC words what I posted above this still warrants a Moderate Risk especially West Tennessee, Arkansas, and North MS area.

Id agree, I'm expecting a day 1 moderate as well somewhere in that vicinity.

 

[TheSuckZone]

 

[Kds86z]

View attachment 37660

Dang that shot is like 3-15 ..

 

[Kds86z]

Dang that shot is like 3-15 ..

3/14*** MO/AR

 

[Clancy]

Okay lemme try this again, in the right thread this time!

While not quite as potent-looking as it was yesterday for Alabama, 18Z HRRR still depicts a QLCS which will be nothing to scoff at moving through the morning hours on Monday. Pretty substantial damaging wind threat with the risk for embedded tornadoes, if this were to verify. TN and MS (and up into the Ozarks and Mid-to-Upper MSV) may see more supercellular activity during the late evening and early morning hours, before things look to potentially transition to a more linear appearance.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

18Z HRRR really lights up western KY with supercells after dark tomorrow evening, and they keep going for a good 2-3 hours before congealing.

 

[AJS]

18Z HRRR really lights up western KY with supercells after dark tomorrow evening, and they keep going for a good 2-3 hours before congealing.

Are they showing them to be discrete supercells or semi discrete?

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Are they showing them to be discrete supercells or semi discrete?

Mostly semi-discrete although there are one or two depicted running out ahead of the cluster.

 

[OhOkayThen]

Paducah publicly throwing out "strong/long-tracked tornado" wording for tomorrow.

 

[Clancy]

15Z SREF shows an at least somewhat conducive environment for tornadoes Sunday morning into the afternoon across the Southeast, and some pretty strong HREF 24-hour values for tornado risk across the MSV and TNV. Also, SREF shows the possibility for severe convection with the pulse/multicell activity across Eastern MS, most of AL and northern GA Sunday afternoon, before the actual activity moves in overnight into Monday.

 

[AJS]

Mostly semi-discrete although there are one or two depicted running out ahead of the cluster.

Let’s hope those two ahead of the cluster don’t take that one path.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Mesocale Models are really honing in on south Mississippi and South Alabama having a elevated severe threat Monday* morning.

 

[Kds86z]

Mesocale Models are really honing in on south Mississippi and South Alabama having an elevated severe threat Sunday morning.

Wait so @UncleJuJu98 the event is starting early? Oh

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Wait so @UncleJuJu98 the event is starting early? Oh

My bad, Monday morning!

 

[SilentShadow87]

Dang that shot is like 3-15 ..

If that verifies then a D1 MDT would be totally justified.

 

[Kds86z]

If that verifies then a D1 MDT would be totally justified.

Yeah, IF..

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

Hmmm, is tonight’s threat in OK uptrending a bit? Seems like the hail threat has expanded a bit at least

 

[Kds86z]

Hmmm, is tonight’s threat in OK uptrending a bit? Seems like the hail threat has expanded a bit at least

Check it out in other thread @UpperLevelLOL

 

[KevinH]

I’ll say it….

Are we all just ignoring the latest D2 then? Oh ok lol