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Severe WX Severe threat 3/30-3/31

tennessee storm chaser said:
Yeah really. For him he should be able find good spot perhaps central Arkansas. Which is closer from Texas for him
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It’ll depend on how school goes for me this week. If it’s a pretty quiet week, I could probably take Friday off to make the drive. But if Houston gets some chance at some severe weather, I may not have to drive that far after all.
 
I’m still annoyed I wasn’t out chasing on December 28, 2024. I literally had a tornado come within a mile of my neighborhood, but i’m glad I didn’t at the same time because being away from my family while they shelter would’ve worried me to death.

A bit random; but just felt like I needed to get that out. Hopefully if Houston gets severe weather; it isn’t as bad as the 28th.
 
AJS said:
It’ll depend on how school goes for me this week. If it’s a pretty quiet week, I could probably take Friday off to make the drive. But if Houston gets some chance at some severe weather, I may not have to drive that far after all.
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Your best bet for drive time and chance would be middle Lousianna imo, I don't think you'll have to go far. But it's still early. Id give it another day or two.
 
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AJS said:
I’m still annoyed I wasn’t out chasing on December 28, 2024. I literally had a tornado come within a mile of my neighborhood, but i’m glad I didn’t at the same time because being away from my family while they shelter would’ve worried me to death.

A bit random; but just felt like I needed to get that out. Hopefully if Houston gets severe weather; it isn’t as bad as the 28th.
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Thanks for sharing that @AJS . Makes sense! And that’s close..
 
UK_EF4 said:
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Well, you could say model confidence is not the best for this system...

Though I guess that is to be expected at 140 hours out. Recent radiosonde cuts certainly won't help with improving model confidence either, particularly as we get a bit closer.
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From the most zonal fart in the wind you've ever seen to a classic Kansas City trough ejection. Yeah, still a lot to parse out here. Still, very clear whatever this system looks like will have plenty of juice to work with.
 
18Z GFS makes for a multi-day event, Sunday across the MSV and Monday across the Southeast into the Eastern Seaboard. Kinematics still a pretty big question mark and obviously no way to really tell until we know more about synoptic evolution. Tornado risk would, verbatim, be highest over the western portions of the MSV into the Ozarks, where wind fields will be most favorable for storm-go-spinny. Could see some QLCS tornado risk on Monday but guessing it would be largely a damaging wind event over AL, GA and the Carolinas. Very interesting setup overall, and will be interested to see what it ends up looking like as we draw closer.
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Clancy said:
18Z GFS makes for a multi-day event, Sunday across the MSV and Monday across the Southeast into the Eastern Seaboard. Kinematics still a pretty big question mark and obviously no way to really tell until we know more about synoptic evolution. Tornado risk would, verbatim, be highest over the western portions of the MSV into the Ozarks, where wind fields will be most favorable for storm-go-spinny. Could see some QLCS tornado risk on Monday but guessing it would be largely a damaging wind event over AL, GA and the Carolinas. Very interesting setup overall, and will be interested to see what it ends up looking like as we draw closer.
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Fantastic work as usual. Going to be interesting seeing how this all develops.
 
Clancy said:
18Z GFS makes for a multi-day event, Sunday across the MSV and Monday across the Southeast into the Eastern Seaboard. Kinematics still a pretty big question mark and obviously no way to really tell until we know more about synoptic evolution. Tornado risk would, verbatim, be highest over the western portions of the MSV into the Ozarks, where wind fields will be most favorable for storm-go-spinny. Could see some QLCS tornado risk on Monday but guessing it would be largely a damaging wind event over AL, GA and the Carolinas. Very interesting setup overall, and will be interested to see what it ends up looking like as we draw closer.
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I noticed in NWS MEG afternoon discussion they hinted a potential nocturnal event for Sunday due to recent forecast models having a later start time Sunday.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
Would this be considered a "loaded gun" if it verifies, or am I missing something?

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I also somehow completely missed this response in regards to my comment about more day 6/7 risks seemingly being issued this year. Great explanation and much appreciated @JPWX ! Apologies to @andyhb for our misunderstanding yesterday. That was mostly my fault, and after some reflection, I can definitely see how what I was saying came off as downplaying the threats we've seen this year. I hope everyone knows that wasn't my intent!
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No problem whatsoever. I'm always afraid of people reading what I post getting upset. I don't want that to come across. I try to be as clear as I can in what I post with analog and personal experience. I'll be the first to tell you that I've learned a lot from folks on here and elsewhere. Yeah, I'm not the smartest meteorologist and just have a bachelor's degree. To my knowledge, me and David Moran are the only meteorologists in the field with Cerebral Palsy. When I was on social, David and I corresponded some. Heck, I remember one time I downplayed the severe weather event on social that led to the Tupelo, MS tornado in 2014. I got called out on it and for good reason. I learned from that mistake and I did apologize. That's one thing you will always get from me. If I'm wrong on something like that, I will apologize.
 
So the GFS is still on board with a multi-day severe weather threat. I started a run of the WRF-ARW about 5 PM (before the 18z was out, so it used the 12z still) and it finished not long ago. Here's some of the highlights. I used a 9 km resolution centered on Nashville, TN.



Composite Radar shows a mostly broken line of cells ahead of the front.

radar_032525.gif


Here's the Surface Based CAPE, showing some areas above 3000. I've also plotted the fronts/boundaries on here -- this is using a detection algorithm to find fronts and boundaries, plotted in dotted gold. I can add these to any plot or animation.

1742955426675.png


The LCL is also important for potential tornadoes (a lower cloud base means the tornado has less to reach the ground). SBCAPE of >2k coincide with LCL's of 600m or less in western TN -- this might be there area to watch closest.

1742955664042.png


The 0-500m Storm Relative Helicity is also 150-250 across much of Arkansas, SE Missouri, extreme southern Illinois, and western Kentucky and Tennessee.


1742955865771.png



I've tabled work on the composite indices (SCP, STP, and VTP) for now, because the correct way to calculate them is VERY slow (like hours), but I am working on some other cool features like a Vertically Integrated Graupel measure that is doing really well so far at detecting storm cores (and can show areas of increased lightning/hail potential), as well as maximum wind gust potential, and hodographs. Hopefully looking to make progress on those features in the coming days.

For the record, I'm mainly just playing with the model right now -- we're what, 6 days out? Or something like that. It's anyone's guess until we get a little bit closer. I'll try to run a high resolution model tomorrow (either 3 km or 4 km resolution) so we can see what it says before the real CAMs come into focus.
 
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