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Severe WX Severe threat 3/30-3/31

tennessee storm chaser said:
Will that have an effect on sundays threat is key question , what’s your thoughts …. No convection. Now for Saturday much , does that escalate the threat for Sunday ?
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At this range it’s hard to tell and we will know more as it’s closer. Fewer to no storms on Saturday could raise the ceiling for Sunday. However, If you recall in some of the prior outlooks, there was supposed to be corridors of subsidence over the south on the 3/15 event that would’ve kept additional showers from forming. While the warm sector over the majority of Mississippi was pristine, you still had this huge rain shield west and north of the threat area. Showers and storms the day of is always so hard to predict, especially this far out
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Yeah, the 06z euro is less than ideal. Hold up and I'll attach a gif.

*Supercells anyone? View attachment 37253
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Aren’t these areas the same areas that were affected by the 1974 Outbreak? From what I remember reading, it took place over a fairly large area that was generally north of the 2011 Super Outbreak.

NOT SAYING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE LIKE THOSE YEARS so don't “cancel” me lol. I am ONLY looking at the placement of the storms in this GIF with 1974.
 
Fairly strong ensemble agreement on the GEFS on Sunday evening. Also starting to gradually come into better agreement on the evolution at 500 mb.
1742920443381.png1742920459120.png1742920472629.png1742920479483.png
 
Clancy said:
85% of the time, it works every time.
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I would now consider those days to be OVER. Just saying….

Over the next few years, a lot of people are going to be surprised when the earth starts doing things it has never done before, in places in places they have never happened before (including Georgia), at times they did not expect, that people THOUGHT were impossible. The false sense of security that people have developed over the years is going to be “shaken.”

Stay safe state twin!
 
Clancy said:
85% of the time, it works every time.
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Will Ferrell Anchorman GIF
 
Would this be considered a "loaded gun" if it verifies, or am I missing something?

1742925855910.png

JPWX said:
Or maybe it's because we've had a lack of big Spring tornado seasons the last few years. When I say big, I mean one right after another. Conga line so to speak. The Deep South has had it's fair share of outbreaks the last few years, but we've really haven't had busy April since..... Well, you know when. I don't work at SPC nor do I know their criteria for issuing 15%/30% outlooks beyond the Day 5 timeframe. However, I do know that some have worked there for 20+ years now and have a general feel for the pattern. When you see them issue Day 5+ outlooks, you start thinking and planning. Not say well, it's gonna Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency before it even happens. They know what they're doing.
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I also somehow completely missed this response in regards to my comment about more day 6/7 risks seemingly being issued this year. Great explanation and much appreciated @JPWX ! Apologies to @andyhb for our misunderstanding yesterday. That was mostly my fault, and after some reflection, I can definitely see how what I was saying came off as downplaying the threats we've seen this year. I hope everyone knows that wasn't my intent!
 
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