Severe WX Severe threat 3/30-3/31

[Bulkshear]

Will that have an effect on sundays threat is key question , what’s your thoughts …. No convection. Now for Saturday much , does that escalate the threat for Sunday ?

I would think that it definitely raises the ceiling some yes.

 

[ColdFront]

Will that have an effect on sundays threat is key question , what’s your thoughts …. No convection. Now for Saturday much , does that escalate the threat for Sunday ?

At this range it’s hard to tell and we will know more as it’s closer. Fewer to no storms on Saturday could raise the ceiling for Sunday. However, If you recall in some of the prior outlooks, there was supposed to be corridors of subsidence over the south on the 3/15 event that would’ve kept additional showers from forming. While the warm sector over the majority of Mississippi was pristine, you still had this huge rain shield west and north of the threat area. Showers and storms the day of is always so hard to predict, especially this far out

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Yeah, the 06z euro is less than ideal. Hold up and I'll attach a gif.

*Supercells anyone?

 

[cniemczura]

I’m predicting 400+ pages for this thread lmao.

Brb adding a forum to one of my websites

Yeah, the 06z euro is less than ideal. Hold up and I'll attach a gif.

*Supercells anyone? View attachment 37253

That looks fun. Cincinnati getting in to the action at all based on what we’re seeing so far?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Brb adding a forum to one of my websites

That looks fun. Cincinnati getting in to the action at all based on what we’re seeing so far?

Maybe, too early to tell. I definitely think there's a chance for some strong/severe storms around that area though.

 

[ColdFront]

Brb adding a forum to one of my websites

That looks fun. Cincinnati getting in to the action at all based on what we’re seeing so far?

If dew points get that far north, I wouldn’t be shocked if there was a chance for some severe weather.

 

[KevinH]

Saw a recent post from a local MET here which suggests this MAY be an overnight event for us and spill over into Monday, 3/31. Thread title may need to be updated lol

 

[KevinH]

Yeah, the 06z euro is less than ideal. Hold up and I'll attach a gif.

*Supercells anyone? View attachment 37253

Aren’t these areas the same areas that were affected by the 1974 Outbreak? From what I remember reading, it took place over a fairly large area that was generally north of the 2011 Super Outbreak.

NOT SAYING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE LIKE THOSE YEARS so don't “cancel” me lol. I am ONLY looking at the placement of the storms in this GIF with 1974.

 

[Clancy]

Fairly strong ensemble agreement on the GEFS on Sunday evening. Also starting to gradually come into better agreement on the evolution at 500 mb.

 

[Kds86z]

I will be following this thread but not saying much until we get closer, as I am not experienced in forecasting but also because things change so I prefer to really pay attention at day 2 or day 1. Appreciate all the analysis.

 

[aujerm]

A major player will be the secondary low. My eyes are on that and the evolution over the next few days.


View attachment 37249View attachment 37250

I see the north Georgia severe weather forcefield is alive and well.

 

[Clancy]

I see the north Georgia severe weather forcefield is alive and well.

85% of the time, it works every time.

 

[JPWX]

85% of the time, it works every time.

Maybe I need to move to North Georgia then. LOL! Deactivates force field

 

[TornadoFan]

Maybe I need to move to North Georgia then. LOL! Deactivates force field

You're a storm magnet.

 

[KevinH]

85% of the time, it works every time.

I would now consider those days to be OVER. Just saying….

Over the next few years, a lot of people are going to be surprised when the earth starts doing things it has never done before, in places in places they have never happened before (including Georgia), at times they did not expect, that people THOUGHT were impossible. The false sense of security that people have developed over the years is going to be “shaken.”

Stay safe state twin!

 

[MMWX]

85% of the time, it works every time.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Would this be considered a "loaded gun" if it verifies, or am I missing something?

Or maybe it's because we've had a lack of big Spring tornado seasons the last few years. When I say big, I mean one right after another. Conga line so to speak. The Deep South has had it's fair share of outbreaks the last few years, but we've really haven't had busy April since..... Well, you know when. I don't work at SPC nor do I know their criteria for issuing 15%/30% outlooks beyond the Day 5 timeframe. However, I do know that some have worked there for 20+ years now and have a general feel for the pattern. When you see them issue Day 5+ outlooks, you start thinking and planning. Not say well, it's gonna Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency before it even happens. They know what they're doing.

I also somehow completely missed this response in regards to my comment about more day 6/7 risks seemingly being issued this year. Great explanation and much appreciated @JPWX ! Apologies to @andyhb for our misunderstanding yesterday. That was mostly my fault, and after some reflection, I can definitely see how what I was saying came off as downplaying the threats we've seen this year. I hope everyone knows that wasn't my intent!

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I see the north Georgia severe weather forcefield is alive and well.

Cips says otherwise . Lol

 

[AJS]

Decided that I will be heading to the Boot of Missouri for my chase. Gonna be a long driver but hopefully it’ll be worth it. Looks like a sweet spot based on the parameters so far.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Decided that I will be heading to the Boot of Missouri for my chase. Gonna be a long driver but hopefully it’ll be worth it. Looks like a sweet spot based on the parameters so far.

Not bad spot I think