Severe WX Severe threat 3/30-3/31

[wx_guy]

WRF-ARW updates for tomorrow:


The Birmingham metro and areas north and east may experience a severe wind threat ("Limited" in this context denotes winds in the ballpark of 60-65 mph gusting). This is at 9 AM Central.





By 10 AM, the wind threat is nearing the GA border and is now classified as "Moderate" (in this context, you should expect gusts of 70 + mph)




The wind threat continues into GA by 11 AM, and the end of the line in MS is maturing with a hail and wind threat too, as well as an isolated tornado threat.

 

[MichelleH]

FYI, the Cullman NOAA weather radio transmitter is down until further notice.

 

[Tennie]

One fatality has been reported in Valparaiso, IN. It's currently unclear if it was caused by a tornado or straight-line winds.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

This is...not ideal.

 

[Kds86z]

View attachment 37846

Taken from SPC mesoanalysis, note that the dewpoints are lower and the temps are higher across E AR due to mixing, this is likely why storms are struggling a bit to become tornadic currently (with some tendency towards outflow dominance). That changes once you get closer to the MS River, and is likely why CAMs have been more aggressive with UH output into W TN.

So I guess as storms go east…

 

[AJS]

This is...not ideal.

View attachment 37856

I can’t tell what that storm is trying to do. My radarscope is really cluttered right now for some reason.

 

[wx_guy]

Last post on this model run, starting at noon tomorrow Central time:

By noon, the wind threat continues, and the cells are pumping up in the line throughout AL, GA, and MS.






With daytime heating and CAPE kicking in, it's no surprise the line intensifies. A Moderate/High wind-driven risk is at 1 PM CDT. (High means the model estimates maximum wind gusts could exceed 80 mph.)





Same story at 2 PM but damage potential getting very widespread:




Same story at 3PM CDT:







And 4 PM *sadface* look at it bowing out






And 5 PM CDT:




And 6 PM:





Gonna be a rough day tomorrow looks like! Wind-driven mostly, but hail and tornadoes on the board too.

 

[US_Highway15]

Another fatality was reported earlier on dispatch (I was listening) from Middlebury IN. Had a tree fall on a car with two people trapped inside. One of the occupants in the car died, while the other was transported to the hospital. Not sure if NWS from Northern Indiana will put it in the damage reports or not.

 

[AJS]

Tornado Warning issued for the cell well off to the West of Mayfield and to the East of East Prairie.

Warning disappeared for some reason.

 

[AJS]

The Jonesboro cell looks to be hooking on the radar actually.

 

[_melody_]

FYI, the Cullman NOAA weather radio transmitter is down until further notice.

Well, that explains a lot. I got a new radio and I was thinking that IT was the problem. Thank you!

 

[MidTNWx]

The Jonesboro cell looks to be hooking on the radar actually.

Looks like a merger is going to occur with that cell to the south. Velocities look to be picking up near the merge and weakening near the original circulation.

 

[AJS]

Looks like a merger is going to occur with that cell to the south. Velocities look to be picking up near the merge and weakening near the original circulation.

That’s what I was thinking. Reminds me of the Amory, MS supercell beginning stages.

 

[Muwx]

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Could be a problem between Brookland and Lake City here shortly.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Inflow is strengthing with the Jonesboro tornado warning.

 

[AJS]

Very discrete cell north of Little Rock could bear watching.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Very discrete cell north of Little Rock could bear watching.

Yep, it looks like it initiated off a outflow boundary as well. Very cool

 

[Kds86z]

Inflow is strengthing with the Jonesboro tornado warning.

Got a feeling . Maybe

 

[TornadoFan]

Velocities picking up on the New Madrid storm