Severe WX Severe threat 3/30-3/31

[OhOkayThen]

I noticed last few HRRR runs are putting out rotating supercells just ahead of the line around W KY / NW TN in a couple hours.

 

[LoopingHodos]

Yeah, my model has roughly the same UH feature in Arkansas moving towards Memphis.

I figure you probably live in Alabama so you run your models for that area, but I would love to see the models run where the action is and compare to some of the others!

 

[wx_guy]

I figure you probably live in Alabama so you run your models for that area, but I would love to see the models run where the action is and compare to some of the others!

I actually don't live in AL, but I'm from there and most of my family are there, and a large part of this forum coincidentally lives in AL lol I've made some efforts to capture the full picture (centering it on Memphis a few times and putting a bigger viewing window), but I honestly didn't anticipate much action in the upper Midwest to be totally honest, so I haven't ran it for Ohio/Illinois/etc. It's a tricky balancing game trying to zoom in enough to get a good resolution (really has to be 3km or less in order to be convection-allowing) while keeping run time manageable, so a difficult choice has to be made about where to center it. I already have a run going on now (centered on Birmingham, I believe...*guilty* lol) but I'll make sure to do some further north runs for Wednesday's threat. Thanks much for the feedback, I do appreciate it very much!

 

[CheeselandSkies]

All active tornado warnings at the moment are with the QLCS now flying through northeast Indiana and about to push into southern Lower Michigan.

 

[ColdFront]

I noticed last few HRRR runs are putting out rotating supercells just ahead of the line around W KY / NW TN in a couple hours.

I’m really not sure if storm mode is going to cooperate as a whole today. Those cells in southern Missouri are all clustered together.

This is why the SPC stayed w/enhanced.

 

[atrainguy]

Got an observed warning in southern Michigan.

 

[wx_guy]

Yeah, I totally misjudged the further-north threat today. I thought the mid-South would see all the action (which still may well happen overnight).

 

[akt1985]

As far as Michigan, the southern half of the state is dealing with severe thunderstorms while the U.P. and northern lower peninsula is dealing with an ice storm.

 

[ColdFront]

Yeah, I totally misjudged the further-north threat today. I thought the mid-South would see all the action (which still may well happen overnight).

Yeah. Storm mode, outside of 3/14 has, frustratingly, been hard to nail down this year.

 

[atrainguy]

Ryan Hall is showing a possible tornado on radar southeast of Grand Rapids, MI. Seems like a lot of rotating spots in that area of the line.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

I'm extremely concerned for my friends in the Memphis area tonight.

Sounding I pulled from the NAM



and the RAP



HRRR is showing a crazy high STPs at 8 ,9, and 10pm with 10pm peaking right by the Memphis metro at a 9.8.




I had GPT help summarize the risk to communicate with my friends.

• This environment is strongly supportive of tornadic supercells, with a high risk of significant tornadoes (EF2+).
• The combination of strong CAPE, high shear, and very supportive storm-relative helicity (SRH) makes this an environment where long-track, intense tornadoes are possible.
• A tornado outbreak could occur if storms can initiate and sustain in this environment.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Mesocyclone on the doniphan Missouri storm is incredible. That maybe the bigger tornado threat so far

 

[atrainguy]

Ryan Hall is showing a possible tornado on radar southeast of Grand Rapids, MI. Seems like a lot of rotating spots in that area of the line.

And it's warned.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Gee whiz. That's wild!

 

[Clancy]

Mesocyclone on the doniphan Missouri storm is incredible. That maybe the bigger tornado threat so far

You weren't kidding!

 

[Kds86z]

Mesocyclone on the doniphan Missouri storm is incredible. That maybe the bigger tornado threat so far

I was just gonna say… isn’t that kind of discrete

 

[atrainguy]

Some minor damage from Sturgis, which I believe was where the observed warning was.

 

[wx_guy]

New WRF-ARW model of mine coming in as we speak. It showcases MS, TN, AL, and GA. REALLY sorry about not focusing on the further-north threat, I totally misjudged it.


On the plus side, I got the radar fixed on my app! I don't know who all noticed, but the dbz was really muted and less than what it should be --- > that turned out to be something wrong with the Python package I was using, everything I did was right except use that package. I've now got WRF directly outputting reflectivity and it's beautiful lol

I'll have some images/animations coming up soon, but just LOOK at that nasty composite radar for later tonight...

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I was just gonna say… isn’t that kind of discrete

Yeah, this one has some potential in the near future. The velocity couplet has purple on it now. It's really really spinning.

Anybody in its path needs to take cover it could drop somethng bad if it does,

*Just pulled up the Memphis radar and it's not as impressive so I'm not sure exactly what's going on. Definitely looks impressive though*

 

[Kds86z]

Yeah, this one has some potential in the near future. The velocity couplet has purple on it now. It's really really spinning.

Anybody in its path needs to take cover it could drop somethng bad if it does,

*Just pulled up the Memphis radar and it's not as impressive so I'm not sure exactly what's going on. Definitely looks impressive though*

Guess things aren’t favorable atm