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Severe WX Severe Threat 17-18 March 2021

That Chilton County tornado is probably EF3+ from what I've seen. Not sure what else is out there, but there were definitely a number of sig tors in AL yesterday. I think people would be viewing this event a lot differently had they hit less rural areas (the stuff in Tuscaloosa and Jefferson Counties in particular).
 
Hopefully some studies are done on yesterday's event in order to see what the forecasts got right and wrong and why things (likely) ended up the way they did. Dixie Alley has shown itself to be rather tricky to forecast severe weather for, and hopefully the data gathered from VORTEX-SE and similar projects (both previous and future) would go at least some way towards improving our understanding and forecasting of severe weather in this region. I know that already there have been some studies published using VORTEX-SE data already, and am looking forward to seeing how the results from those and future studies will be implemented in future forecasts.
 
Moderate risk has been removed:

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Rotation near Hartwell, GA tightening up.

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Jackson NWS: “Our storm survey team's preliminary reports show that an EF-1 Tornado occurred yesterday in Lincoln County, east of Brookhaven, with estimated winds of 95 mph.”
 
Moundville early prelim high end EF1, Chilton prelim high end EF2. Must have been a manufactured home or mobile home that was obliterated.
 
Alright so clearly they're still on that damage path, still every early on. It's probably a bit premature to announce preliminary ratings as with Fultondale since the media's going to run with that but hey, nice to have an update regardless
 
warneagle said:
That's true to an extent, but zero tornado reports in the Mississippi portion of the high risk is a forecast Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency by any standards. Not saying the event as a whole was a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency since we'll likely have 30+ tornadoes and several significant ones, but that specific part of the forecast area objectively didn't verify.
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As someone in the high risk portion of MS, I’m grateful for it! It rained here most of the day, it was cool but humid, we were in the upper 60s at the warmest part of the day when they had projected us to be in the low 80s. My science mind is curious why, but my mama heart is thankful I didn’t have to take cover with my babies last night! We had a line of strong winds comes through, but otherwise, it was just normal thunderstorms.
 
Yesterday here was an absolute washout, 4"+ storm total with several hours straight of torrential rain that flooded the basement and made several local roads impassible via flash flooding. Never got above 66° and saw the sun for about ten minutes. If the warm sector had been a little more capped and the heavy sloppy rain not happened, it'd have been historic. No complaints here
 
Equus said:
Yesterday here was an absolute washout, 4"+ storm total with several hours straight of torrential rain that flooded the basement and made several local roads impassible via flash flooding. Never got above 66° and saw the sun for about ten minutes. If the warm sector had been a little more capped and the heavy sloppy rain not happened, it'd have been historic. No complaints here
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What happened to that EML that was supposed to be advected in?
 
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