Severe WX Severe Threat 17-18 March 2021

[buckeye05]

The new line of cells forming is looking healthy. Tight couplet on one already.

 

[KevinH]

The new line of cells forming is looking healthy. Tight couplet on one already.
View attachment 7155

And just north of that too

 

[WxSnowFan47]

The new line of cells forming is looking healthy. Tight couplet on one already.
View attachment 7155

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Mobile AL
400 AM CDT Thu Mar 18 2021

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southeastern Crenshaw County in south central Alabama...

* Until 430 AM CDT.

* At 359 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Brantley, or 11 miles south of Luverne, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Glenwood around 415 AM CDT.

 

[buckeye05]

Looks like there was a small TDS near Brantley, AL

 

[WxSnowFan47]

Wind threat for the Wiregrass...


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
429 AM CDT Thu Mar 18 2021

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Geneva County in southeastern Alabama...
Northern Walton County in the Panhandle of Florida...
Holmes County in the Panhandle of Florida...
North central Washington County in the Panhandle of Florida...

* Until 530 AM CDT.

* At 429 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Samson to near Eglin Air Force Base, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
De Funiak Springs, Bonifay, Geneva, Hartford, Slocomb, Samson,
Eglin Air Force Base, Union, Liberty, Malvern, Paxton, Ponce De
Leon, Caryville, Esto, Westville, Coffee Springs, Noma, Black,
Oakwood Hills and Cluster Springs.

 

[pscampbe]

Something might be wrong with your thermometer. What kind of weather station do you have? All the reputable observations I see in the Shoals are between 61-64 degrees.

Doubt it. It's a Nimbus digital thermometer from the NWS. It gets checked twice a year. I'm a co-op observer. I will be interested to see other reports from the area this morning. Muscle Shoals only made it to 68 at 9:45 PM.

 

[speedbump305]

Based on what i saw yesterday, if these tornadoes with the intense radar signatures hit anything at peak, i’d doubt they would get anything lower than a EF2. The Chilton tornado seems to be the most plausible EF4. Selma is one i want to see pics of. Anyways, I wouldn’t call yesterday a “ BUST “ but i’d say the 45 percent was the wrong call.

 

[MattW]

I don't know, the way I understand the SPC outlooks is they are the chance of the event occurring. So if you have a 45% area, and you have 100 EF0 tornadoes, wouldn't that verify? I'm not the greatest with probabilities, so I can't tell you if 45% or 30% or 1% would have been better, but it seems like there were a lot of warnings yesterday. Now the hatched areas are different since they indicate a chance for significant severe weather, but I think that would verify given some of the damage reports.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

One thing about yesterday, is that nearly all of the apparently strongest tornadoes seemed to occur in bad radar holes. Any impressive couplets/TDS's were generally transient, which was partially a function of storm behavior but also of most of those tornadoes that were more significant tending to be far from any NEXRAD sites. I know I for one was expecting at least a couple of long-lasting, jaw-dropping hooks w/debris balls/>200kt GTG couplets/CC drops yesterday. Yes, the event underwhelmed a bit but you're also not going to see radar signatures like that, even for a scan or two, if the beam is hitting the storm at 9,000 feet.

I think that's a part of where the "bust" perception tends to come from.

 

[warneagle]

One thing about yesterday, is that nearly all of the apparently strongest tornadoes seemed to occur in bad radar holes. Any impressive couplets/TDS's were generally transient, which was partially a function of storm behavior but also of most of those tornadoes that were more significant tending to be far from any NEXRAD sites. I know I for one was expecting at least a couple of long-lasting, jaw-dropping hooks w/debris balls/>200kt GTG couplets/CC drops yesterday. Yes, the event underwhelmed a bit but you're also not going to see radar signatures like that, even for a scan or two, if the beam is hitting the storm at 9,000 feet.

I think that's a part of where the "bust" perception tends to come from.

That's a fair point, and also we had the good fortune that most of the storms reached their apparent peak intensity over relatively unpopulated areas. There weren't many direct hits on towns. Not often we have a day with that many tornadoes where we get that lucky.

 

[speedbump305]

That's a fair point, and also we had the good fortune that most of the storms reached their apparent peak intensity over relatively unpopulated areas. There weren't many direct hits on towns. Not often we have a day with that many tornadoes where we get that lucky.

Yes we did get very lucky for the most part. Don’t get me wrong. there were VERY impress TDS and debris balls in some storms. Most storms did produce a tornado and had a violent signature, but didn’t hit a major town, I have a feeling Selma will have major damage, along with chilton and laurel

 

[GA Stormchaser]

Just wanted to say Thank You to everyone who shared their knowledge in the lead up to yesterday’s events. Special thanks to some of the “old timers” ( Fred Gossage, Matt Grantham, RichardJacks, and many others).

Again, this site was proven as the “go to” for important weather information.

THANKS


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[speedbump305]

Does anyone have any more images of the Rainsville storm from yesterday

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Based on what i saw yesterday, if these tornadoes with the intense radar signatures hit anything at peak, i’d doubt they would get anything lower than a EF2. The Chilton tornado seems to be the most plausible EF4. Selma is one i want to see pics of. Anyways, I wouldn’t call yesterday a “ BUST “ but i’d say the 45 percent was the wrong call.

Agree there. Storms just didn’t get enough space apart get true discrete signature . More semi discrete. That lowered the strong violent tornado chance there alone

 

[speedbump305]

Agree there. Storms just didn’t get enough space apart get true discrete signature . More semi discrete. That lowered the strong violent tornado chance there alone

We have a moderate risk for the carolinas today. wonder if it will bust

 

[pohnpei]

One thing about yesterday, is that nearly all of the apparently strongest tornadoes seemed to occur in bad radar holes. Any impressive couplets/TDS's were generally transient, which was partially a function of storm behavior but also of most of those tornadoes that were more significant tending to be far from any NEXRAD sites. I know I for one was expecting at least a couple of long-lasting, jaw-dropping hooks w/debris balls/>200kt GTG couplets/CC drops yesterday. Yes, the event underwhelmed a bit but you're also not going to see radar signatures like that, even for a scan or two, if the beam is hitting the storm at 9,000 feet.

I think that's a part of where the "bust" perception tends to come from.

I think it's fair to say tornado activity in most parts of MS bust. The second round of the activity which was predicted to be the main show of the day bust without a doubt. The first round verified quite good. I watched yesterday's CAM's presentation constantly and It seems to me that they change the storm mode quite frequently through the D1. The foreseeable uncertainty of the storm mode of this event was obvious.

 

[speedbump305]

Another thing is, the tornadoes that did touch down, they weren’t too long tracked, but they were NASTY LOOKING. Selma, Chilton, Laurel, Tuscaloosa, and Rainsville structure storms were nasty and had mean TVS and debris balls

 

[speedbump305]

I think it's fair to say tornado activity in most parts of MS bust. The second round of the activity which was predicted to be the main show of the day bust without a doubt. The first round verified quite good. I watched yesterday's CAM's presentation constantly and It seems to me that they change the storm mode quite frequently through the D1. The foreseeable uncertainty of the storm mode of this event was obvious.

Yes the first round in Mississippi had a lot of violent looking tornadoes ( Mainly Laurel )

 

[pohnpei]

Yes the first round in Mississippi had a lot of violent looking tornadoes ( Mainly Laurel )

There were only three tornado reports in entire MS. I know there can be more tornados after the survey. But "a lot of violent looking tornados in MS" seems a little exaggerated to me. I don't think tornados near laurel can be violent based on the radar and damage we see now. 2019/12/16 had way more tornado reports and long trackers than yesterday in MS obviously and it was just an ENH. I have no mean to blame SPC, the high risk was a very good call. The CAM's presentation of this event wasn't particularly good to say at least.

 

[speedbump305]

There were only three tornado reports in entire MS. I know there can be more tornados after the survey. But "a lot of violent looking tornados in MS" seems a little exaggerated to me. I don't think tornados near laurel can be violent based on the radar and damage we see now. 2019/12/16 had way more tornado reports and long trackers than yesterday in MS obviously and it was just an ENH. I have no mean to blame SPC, the high risk was a very good call. The CAM's presentation of this event wasn't particularly good to say at least.

Yeah. I actually forgot about that outbreak lol. anyways we really don’t know if it busted in terms of damage, we will have to wait. the outbreak is far from over. Moderate risk for carolinas