Those are always tricky, but the 850mb jet ramps up into the 50-60 kt range as it moves into west central Georgia during the late overnight, and that makes me really nervous with the retreating wedge warm front near by. Deep-layer shear vectors would support at least a semi-cellular storm mode way over into north central Georgia. I think the higher threat is ultimately north central AL up into southern TN and then westward, but I could easily see a few tornadic supercells, and can't rule out a significant tornado, over into west central or north central Georgia either.
Gotcha. Thanks!
They were stating through yesterday that although that is the timeline for the part, they would have the capability of bringing the radar back into operation if needed. Has that changed?Looks like KGWX radar will be down for at least part of the event as well
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Looks like KGWX radar will be down for at least part of the event as well
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Every single model has locked onto a 50-55+ kt 850mb jet developing near sunset and continuing into the overnight, and the 06z runs all had a 60-65 kt 850mb max. This trend upward in the models started with the upper trough starting to get observed in the upper air network last night.
The is the trend I feared. I haven't had a chance to look at everything this morning g due to work, but will later today, after the 12z stuff is in. I just wonder if we might see a little more slowing today and tomorrow.
I wouldn't rule it out, but I've also noticed that the trough trajectory is now due east across the area instead of to the northeast and glancing us. That more direct ascent across the warm sector is going to increase the chances for open warm sector development instead of having to wait for the cold front or dryline or whatever crosses to get here. I think we're still looking at a mid-afternoon start time in Alabama, but I do definitely think the end time is trending deeper into the overnight.
Ouch, I am hoping to take a look at everything later this morning after my first appointment. All of that is very concerning.
The deeper you go into Georgia, the farther away you are from the higher impact area. However, this low-level jet does migrate eastward through Georgia, and the Thursday risk goes through the Carolinas. I think a lot of the Georgia threat, especially I-75 and east, will come down to how long the storms are cellular or semi-cellular. You still need to be alert for a severe storm/tornado risk, but the higher threat is definitely west of you.
