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Severe WX Severe Risk 2/23-2/24

New MD cites exactly the concern that Andy mentioned upthread w/r/t the increasing 700mb flow:

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 5 continues.

SUMMARY...A relative weakness in low-level shear has limited
potential for storm-scale rotation up until now. Low-level shear
and hodograph enlargement is forecast for the remainder of the
afternoon into the early evening. A corresponding increase in
severe risk is expected.

DISCUSSION...KDGX VAD data through the early afternoon has exhibited
relatively modest low-level shear (0-1 km SRH less than 150 m2/s2).
Coupled with some weakness in the mid-level lapse rate above 500mb,
the two factors have combined to limit storm organization in the low
levels and the severe risk through 200-230 pm CST. However, a
gradual increase in 700mb flow is expected through 6 pm and
low-level storm rotation potential is expected to increase
coincident with the hodograph enlarging and not exhibiting the
degree of veer-back-veer tendency shown in earlier raobs. As such,
gradual storm intensification and increase in the severe risk with
an accompanying threat for tornadoes is expected.
 
The severe t'storm warning for the Tuscaloosa storm does mention that it could produce a tornado
 
Surprised James Spann isn't live at least on social media. That thing just looks nasty, even if it's "only" a severe thunderstorm.
 
Slowly increasing structure and now thunder on the storm north of the TCL cell, going to pass right overhead in a few minutes
 
NWS has issued a Tornado Watch for Colbert, Cullman, Franklin, Lauderdale, Lawrence, Limestone, Madison, Marshall, Morgan, Lincoln & Moore Counties until 10:00 PM
 
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