Severe potential 2/23-2/25

[champal3003]

Also, 10% hatched area for tornadoes in there with a mention of one or two long track tornadoes if discrete cells form ahead of it.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Good luck and stay safe!!

Thank you! I’m just inside MS now at rest stop. Heading towards Memphis, and will assess where to go from there.

 

[warneagle]

Also a major flash flooding threat with this event. Dangerously heavy rainfall + potentially strong tornadoes, yikes.

EDIT: I should say threat for *additional* flash flooding, there's already been significant flooding across a lot of the affected area this week.

 

[warneagle]

Tornado watch is up, 70/40 probs.

 

[Equus]

Tornado warning near Booneville, AR, but it's within the QLCS.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

I’m going to sleep.

 

[NWMSGuy]

I’m going to sleep.

Not feeling this current setup?

 

[Equus]

As much as the latest MD makes it clear the SPC is still concerned about supercells, I honestly still am wondering about storm mode with the messy convection currently filling much of AR. Could be a significant event or one of the typical early season marginal events... these borderline cases are the more difficult events to call.

Not that the SPC's tornado probabilities on spring and winter setups have been exactly spot-on if last year says anything though

 

[MichelleH]

Some storms between Tuscaloosa and Birmingham seem to be strengthening fairly rapidly.

 

[Equus]

QLCS in AR looks rather robust. Maybe only relatively, because of how quiet this severe season has been so far compared to last year, but it's definitely going to be a wind producer.

 

[rolltide_130]

So far things don't look too promising from a supercell standpoint.. that junk in S AR and the boundary in NW LA are messing things up..

 

[MichelleH]

New tornado watch until 9 pm for several states:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0005.html

 

[Equus]

Line is passing Little Rock. Am thinking the 10% hatched was a bit aggressive thus far, but marginal events can still surprise.

 

[Equus]

TOR for Logan and Simpson in KY, really impressive isolated cell there. Impressive on radar

 

[Taylor Campbell]

TOR for Logan and Simpson in KY, really impressive isolated cell there. Impressive on radar

Lol. Yeah, I would love to have that storm to look at.

 

[NorthBamaWX]

http://www.wbko.com/livestream2

Kentucky Live stream

 

[Equus]

Honestly I wonder if that's going to be the sweet spot today, even the severe warnings in AR have fallen off a bit. So far the aggressive tornado wording for AR/MS/SW TN seems to have been a bit too aggressive.

 

[xJownage]

TOR for Logan and Simpson in KY, really impressive isolated cell there. Impressive on radar

Actually quite unhappy w/ the NWS in Louisville, had a couplet and debris signature 15 minutes before the storm was even tornado warned. The cell even got severe warned while it had an obvious tornado on the ground. Pathetic.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

I’m going to wait for this line maybe. It doesn’t look so good, but I’m already out here lol.

 

[NorthBamaWX]

the storm in Kentucky a little while ago

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DW1ds1pUQAA1RD2.jpg