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Severe WX October 25 - 26, 2019 Severe Weather Event

Yet another tornado warning for Mobile, Baldwin and Clarke counties in Alabama.

* Tornado Warning for...
Northeastern Mobile County in southwestern Alabama...
Northwestern Baldwin County in southwestern Alabama...
Southern Clarke County in southwestern Alabama...

* Until 545 PM CDT.

* At 457 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 4 miles east of Chickasaw, moving north at 35 mph.
 
University of Alabama has canceled all homecoming festivities this evening and tomorrow's parade. Game will still kick off at 6pm. We're about to get under a heavy training band.
 
More videos coming in showing debris aloft. Also seeing some damage shots from Mobile Co. Working on finding some that we can post.


 
Last edited:
Mesoscale Discussion 2118
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0514 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019
Areas affected...Southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama
Concerning...Tornado Watch 684...
Valid 252214Z - 252345Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 684 continues.

SUMMARY...The tornado threat has increased over the past hour with confirmed tornado reports in Mobile County. A favorable downstream environment will continue to support a tornado threat.

DISCUSSION...A line of supercells in far southwestern Alabama has exhibited stronger low-level rotation and at least a few confirmed tornadoes over the past 30 minutes. This is likely due to an increasingly favorable low-level environment as MLCAPE has increased to around 1500 J/kg per RAP mesoanalysis. In addition, the MOB VWP shows around 300 m2/s2 of 0-1 SRH and shows 1 km flow has increased from around 35 knots to 45 knots in the past 1 to 1.5 hours. This favorable environment is expected to persist into the evening hours as these storms slowly move east and new storms develop within the warm sector.

..Bentley.. 10/25/2019
 
Great disco by Matt for tomorrow’s threat.

000
FXUS64 KBMX 251756
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1256 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019

.UPDATE...
For 18Z aviation & added a severe threat for Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 1251 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019/

A Marginal Risk for isolated damaging winds and a couple of
tornadoes will be added to our products for Saturday as Tropical
Depression #17 moves toward Louisiana and merges with a dynamic
upper-level trough located over Texas. This should result in
strong pressure falls across Mississippi and a substantial
increase in the low-level jet on Saturday morning. Short-range
models continue to show backed surface winds, from the late
morning into the afternoon, ahead of enhanced pressure troughing
along a cold front. Forecast soundings indicate large hodographs
with 0-1 km shear of 35-45 kt and SRH greater than 300 m2/s2,
particularly north of Highway 80. Though SBCAPE values will
probably only reach 500-1000 J/kg, stronger forcing along the cold
front might yield some relatively deep convection and a potential
for isolated damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes. While all
of our area will be included in the risk area, the best overlap of
instability and shear may be across the center of our forecast
area. The threat may begin around 10 AM in the west and continue
through 10 PM in the east. An upgrade to a Slight Risk cannot be
ruled out in future updates.

87/Grantham
Click to expand...
 
Lots of damage to my north this afternoon near Savannah TN and the surrounding areas. Not sure if it was a tornado or straightline winds.
 
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