November 19-21st severe threat

[atrainguy]

I think we have a TOG west of Gorum, LA
View attachment 22132

edit: yep definitely a tornado
View attachment 22133

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Nice cc drop

 

[warneagle]

Last couple of scans look pretty meh, might be cycling.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Look at that little kidney bean passing just NW of Alexandria. About to slam into the big, ongoing tornadic storm. Cell mergers can do funky things...

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Look at that little kidney bean passing just NW of Alexandria. About to slam into the big, ongoing tornadic storm. Cell mergers can do funky things...

This last spring it kicked off a ef4 from a cell merger lol. And I think a cell merger caused a ef2 up near wear jp lives

 

[Equus]

Cell mergers will definitely be the thing to watch; that's an excellent way to shore up an updraft in marginal lapse rates environments and get a single robust updraft to take advantage of instability that the struggling showers and weak mesos can't; of course it can also negatively impact a storm but the sheer wild card nature of it is fun to watch

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Thar she blows...

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Also, anyone notice how much of that polygon covers areas that supercell structure 101 would dictate would NOT be in the path of a tornado? Yet according to GR Level 3 it continues until 4:00.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Although I'm not well-versed on the specifics of it all, I've come to learn that when the colors brighten up like this but haven't yet become really tight to each other, it's a sign the low-level winds around the mesocyclone are doing *something,* (possibly a surge of inflow and/or an intensification of the RFD?) and may be a precursor to tornadogenesis.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

They finally trimmed the polygon, although a huge part of the forward-flank core is still tornado-warned.

 

[warneagle]

The cell south of Alexandria might be getting its act together here shortly.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Watch coming for eastern LA/parts of MS:

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2276

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

 

[Tennie]

There MIGHT be an unwarned tornado going on near Leesville, LA, right now...

 

[KevinH]

Watch coming for eastern LA/parts of MS:

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2276

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

Did anyone else notice that wording has gone from “a strong tornado” to “a few of which could be strong”?

 

[Clancy]

Note to SE AL/W GA folks: 18Z CAMs bringing instability for tomorrow afternoon up into the low-mid hundreds, nearing 1000 j/kg in a few areas. With favorable shear profiles, people should keep a close eye on storms tomorrow if modelled solutions verify.

 

[KevinH]

WW712 (#2 of the day)
70/50 TOR probs

 

[KevinH]

Note to SE AL/W GA folks: 18Z CAMs bringing instability for tomorrow afternoon up into the low-mid hundreds, nearing 1000 j/kg in a few areas. With favorable shear profiles, people should keep a close eye on storms tomorrow if modelled solutions verify.
View attachment 22136View attachment 22137View attachment 22138

Pardon my ignorance but this (just by itself) looks “meh” to me lol

It probably won’t be though..

 

[Clancy]

Pardon my ignorance but this (just by itself) looks “meh” to me lol

It probably won’t be though..

Mostly a consequence of color scheme; the gray areas comprise CAPE of 300-900, which would be plenty to sustain severe convection.

 

[KevinH]

Mostly a consequence of color scheme; the gray areas comprise CAPE of 300-900, which would be plenty to sustain severe convection.

Fair point.

Yeah then that is definitely something to watch

 

[OHWX97]

There MIGHT be an unwarned tornado going on near Leesville, LA, right now...

I thought so too. Certainly looked like a debris signature appeared on CC as it moved though and east of New Llano. Lined up well with a small, weak couplet.