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November 19-21st severe threat

Vicksburg MS cell needs to be watched. Shear is about to start cranking. And it's already got pretty good broad rotation.
 
Hrrr shows that same vicksburg cell really cranking here in the next few hours with a pretty strong updraft swath, let's see what it does.
 
Looks like potentially a tornado down near Jena LA.

*Maybe faulty cc drop not sure. Tight rotation though
 
Hrrr highlights these two storms to take off.

I'm really worried about the northern one. It's got a monster of a mesocyclone. Watch out anybody near vicksburg Screenshot_2023-11-20-16-26-34-75_d742e5e24846c0b0ac98c1cecc909937.jpg
 
Tanner said:
Not seeing this event performing to any expectation at this time
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For now, at the least. The rule of thumb is to basically let the atmosphere cook. Let's see what happens over the next few hours...(knock on wood!)
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Definitely, that's a good thing though. Still isn't over but keeping at most a enchanched was a good idea by spc.
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I mean, is anyone really surprised? This feels like deja vu. The ratio of Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency-verify feels so imbalanced it’s not believable. Again, it’s not over, so I’m moving forward.
 
BTI on storm NE of Vicksburg.
 

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Tanner said:
I mean, is anyone really surprised? This feels like deja vu. The ratio of Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency-verify feels so imbalanced it’s not believable. Again, it’s not over, so I’m moving forward.
Click to expand...
Lol just goes to show how difficult forecasting is.
 
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