Severe WX Memorial Day 2022 Severe Threat (May 29th - June 2nd) (1 Viewer)

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Hmm. I don't want to call it too early, but convective trends look like a large MCS is trying to form, rather than multiple tornadic supercells. Latest discussion from NWS Twin Cities seems to be picking up on this as well. Parameters are still downright scary, but storm mode is still in question here.

"Our "main event" is starting to get going with storms near the MN/SD
border at 3pm. This is a rare, high- end environment that will be
capable of producing a severe weather outbreak across the MPX
forecast area. The first concern is the potential for a few
supercells to develop in the warm sector ahead of the approaching
cold front. The WoFS has picked up a on these supercells forming over
northwest IA/southwest MN and moving northeast into central MN by
21Z. This potential will be monitored closely as they`d be capable of
producing all severe hazards including tornadoes. However, recent
trends from the WoFS has been to back down on the intensity of these
supercells, instead showing a severe QLCS coming out of SD."

It's a neat concept, but I've not been real impressed with WoFS so far. I recall several days over the course of the last month or so that it's portrayed intense supercells in areas that ended up cap busting.
 

buckeye05

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It's a neat concept, but I've not been real impressed with WoFS so far. I recall several days over the course of the last month or so that it's portrayed intense supercells in areas that ended up cap busting.
Yeah, and this is looking increasingly like a straight-line wind/QLCS spinup day than a supercellular tornado outbreak.

Plus, after tracking events for years, one thing I've noticed is that on days where verification of a significant tornado event hinges on a cleaner storm mode developing during setups where storm mode is expected to be mixed/uncertain, or formation of cells ahead of the line has to occur, more often than not neither of these things happen, and we end up with a QLCS day.
 

warneagle

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Damage from Forada, MN. Not sure if this is tornado or straight-line wind damage. I can't tell if it's a frame house or a mobile home.

 

TH2002

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No doubt the Wichita cell definitely has "that look", and the cell riding the OK-KS border in extreme north central OK looks potentially tornadic as well. GFS run actually forecasted some decent parameters in that area, so I say these two cells are the ones to watch.
 

buckeye05

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Tornado damage in Forada, MN. Looks like at least EF2 to possibly EF3.
FUDdQ43WYAIww42

FUDdQ43X0AEdcMx
 

buckeye05

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I.......Uhhhh.....
View attachment 14366
"Along the track a grain bin was ripped from the base and tossed a mile to the northeast..."
That's fairly impressive in terms of distance. However, empty grain bins are actually fairly light compared to other lofted objects such as cars or large propane tanks. Once blown of their concrete pads, they essentially become huge pieces of sheet metal which have a lot of flat surface area, and can easily catch the wind and float around for quite a while, so its not really indicative of extreme intensity or anything like that.
 
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Opted not to chase Monday after determining storm mode would suck for observable tornadoes, and sat out Tuesday as well after it became apparent that any potentially tornadic storms in Illinois would hold off until after dark (which they did). What looked like a nice 2-day regional window down the drain.
 

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