Severe WX Memorial Day 2022 Severe Threat (May 29th - June 2nd) (1 Viewer)

buckeye05

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That's gotta be one of the most high-end watches I've seen in a while, from Thompson none the less. The so-far messy storm mode is keeping somewhat of a lid on things so far in western MN, but if any discrete cells can get going in the open warm sector, its going to be a long evening.
 

warneagle

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Wait, 10 December 2021 wasn't a PDS? I feel like they've gotten overly conservative with the PDS tag lately.
 

buckeye05

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Hmm. I don't want to call it too early, but convective trends look like a large MCS is trying to form, rather than multiple tornadic supercells. Latest discussion from NWS Twin Cities seems to be picking up on this as well. Parameters are still downright scary, but storm mode is still in question here.

"Our "main event" is starting to get going with storms near the MN/SD
border at 3pm. This is a rare, high- end environment that will be
capable of producing a severe weather outbreak across the MPX
forecast area. The first concern is the potential for a few
supercells to develop in the warm sector ahead of the approaching
cold front. The WoFS has picked up a on these supercells forming over
northwest IA/southwest MN and moving northeast into central MN by
21Z. This potential will be monitored closely as they`d be capable of
producing all severe hazards including tornadoes. However, recent
trends from the WoFS has been to back down on the intensity of these
supercells, instead showing a severe QLCS coming out of SD."
 
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Wait, 10 December 2021 wasn't a PDS? I feel like they've gotten overly conservative with the PDS tag lately.

It was not. I found it noteworthy at the time since it has been fairly common for them to include the PDS tag in tornado watches covering 15% hatched areas. Not always (unlike with high risk probabilities), but fairly common.
 

buckeye05

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I'm thinking that the best near-term potential for supercell tornado activity will be associated with the cells lifting north out of Iowa near Round Lake, MN.
 

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