Hurricane Melissa

[Lake Martin EF4]

Not with a model consensus this universal on a Jamaica landfall.

As for the storm itself I see 2 distinct possibilities:

1. I see a C5 when I wake up tomorrow morning or at least at some point tomorrow
2. "Close enough, welcome back Hurricane Eta"

Well, I was close enough...

Looks like the intensity caught up to the presentation lol. I expect an upgrade at 5 am.

 

[N0mz]

Going to bed now. Willing to bet I wake up to an official cat 5 though.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

HOLY FUCK THE FINAL DVORAK IS AT 8.0?!?!?!?!

AAARRRRGGGHHH

(That's the first final 8.0 in the Atlantic since Gilbert, BTW)

EDIT: OH NO IT'S ACTUALLY 8.1 AAAAHHHHHH-

 

[tornado examiner]

917.7MB now. It's still dropping by the hour.

 

[tornado examiner]

Still two more recon flights scheduled with flight 19 already on its way to continue measuring Melissa.

 

[tornado examiner]

THERE IT IS! Cat 5 upgrade. I can finally sleep!

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

4:52 AM EDT

[td]

...MELISSA NOW A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND STORM SURGE AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING WILL WORSEN ON JAMAICA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT...​

[/td]​

160/917

 

[tornado examiner]

2025 is the first season in 20 years to feature 3 or more category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic basin since 2005.

 

[tornado examiner]

Further intensification to 165MPH is expected.

 

[notsoencrypted]

This section from the most recent discussion really stood out to me:

Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 12 to 24 hours while Melissa is south of Jamaica over waters of high oceanic heat content and in an environment of relatively low wind shear.
Fluctuations in intensity are also possible during this period due to internal dynamics related to eyewall replacements, which are
generally difficult to forecast. There's really no practical difference in Melissa making landfall in Jamaica at category 4 or 5 intensity, since both categories can produce catastrophic wind damage. In addition, winds in the mountains of Jamaica are likely to be higher than the winds at sea level, and are likely to add to the seriousness of the situation. Although interaction with Jamaica will lead to some weakening, Melissa is expected to reach southeastern Cuba as a major hurricane, and will also move across the southeastern Bahamas and be near Bermuda as a hurricane.

I think the note on fluctuations is relevant to all of us watching from a distance.

That said, the fact that this may continue to be a major even after it moves beyond Jamaica speaks to just how strong it is. It's absolutely wild to think about the energy this thing has (and how hot the Caribbean Sea is to power it).

 

[akt1985]

There is now a Hurricane Watch in effect for the lower Bahamas.

 

[tornado examiner]

Still no immediate signs of an EWRC. I wonder how long this can even last.

 

[Atlantic]

Ima just tell you guys, it’s not often you see this every day:

 

[tornado examiner]

New recon data shortly. Probably gonna see a continued intensified

 

[Atlantic]

New recon data shortly. Probably gonna see a continued intensified

I would think so as well. I’m guessing a pressure in the 900s range.

 

[tornado examiner]

Official the strongest Atlantic storm this year, 912MB now. A 5 MB drop since last recon.

 

[Atlantic]

912mb!

 

[Atlantic]

Peak Flight-Level Winds: 155kt

What does that convert to?

 

[SmokeEater]

Peak Flight-Level Winds: 155kt

What does that convert to?

178 mph

 

[Atlantic]

912mb!

View attachment 47985

Looks like some 30 kts of wind, so it might convert to 909 mb I think.