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Hurricane Melissa

majorhurricane1703 said:
I’m betting on it missing Jamaica with a direct landfall even with model consensus. I just can’t see this going directly over the island as history doesn’t support it. Of course this isn’t your usual storm and exceptions do exist, but I think it being so intense will allow it to remain jogging south and west for longer than modeled.
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Unfortunately model consensus > gut feelings in times like this when millions of lives are in peril, and the models are pretty locked in on a Jamaica landfall. Hope you're right though. Could be a miracle, lots of people praying down there.
 
joshoctober16 said:
talking about Jamaica , how is the population density compared to Katrina and Maria? who both had high death count.
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Overall Jamaica is fairly densely populated territory with 3 million people in an area slightly larger than Delaware.

But the population is clustered around Kingston and various other towns on the south and north coasts. The center is not as populated.
The real risk factor / vulnerability is the fact that it's an island, so unlike the U.S. it can't just truck in supplies from another state. They have to be shipped in.

Furthermore, there is a high risk that many roads will be washed away, leaving interior communities stranded for weeks and making it difficult to get aid/supplies into those areas without a major aerial operation.

If the ports (both sea and air) get damaged or destroyed, it could be a very bad humanitarian situation.
 
lake.effect said:
Overall Jamaica is fairly densely populated territory with 3 million people in an area slightly larger than Delaware.

But the population is clustered around Kingston and various other towns on the south and north coasts. The center is not as populated.
The real risk factor / vulnerability is the fact that it's an island, so unlike the U.S. it can't just truck in supplies from another state. They have to be shipped in.

Furthermore, there is a high risk that many roads will be washed away, leaving interior communities stranded for weeks and making it difficult to get aid/supplies into those areas without a major aerial operation.

If the ports (both sea and air) get damaged or destroyed, it could be a very bad humanitarian situation.
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the heaviest rain is going to be at the north east side of Kingston
also to note the heaviest rain will be over the mountains.
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I'm worried base on how it is , it might shove the water all towards Kingston.
 
lake.effect said:
Unfortunately model consensus > gut feelings in times like this when millions of lives are in peril, and the models are pretty locked in on a Jamaica landfall. Hope you're right though. Could be a miracle, lots of people praying down there.
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Going to by model consensus and regard for peoples lives yes I agree. No matter what happens though Jamaica is going to be devastated unfortunately. I just don’t trust the models to be right for a direct landfall especially when they are trying to forecast a slow moving storm. The majority couldn’t get Erin right and that should have been an easy one to get right relative to this one. Obviously every storm is different and Melissa is no exception so I won’t sit here and spread false hope, but until I officially see a turn north, I’m not buying it just yet.
 
joshoctober16 said:
View attachment 47943
View attachment 47944
the heaviest rain is going to be at the north east side of Kingston
also to note the heaviest rain will be over the mountains.
View attachment 47945
I'm worried base on how it is , it might shove the water all towards Kingston.
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Kingston and its suburbs are in a very precarious position at this hour.

A slight westward shift in the track will spare it the worst of the winds/surge, but it could increase the ceiling for the rain event. First, a more westward track means more time over water with little forward motion and more time in the rain bands. Second, the east side of Melissa is where the highest moisture is. A clean fetch off the Caribbean sea for 2 days could dump Harvey-level totals in the Kingston area.

Assuming we see 30-40+ inches totals in the mountains northeast of Kingston, we're looking at catastrophic river flooding of Hope and Cane Rivers in metro Kingston. Both of these rivers have significant development alongside the banks in certain areas per Google Maps.

Kingston is also criss-crossed with smaller tributaries and drainage canals. This is where the catastrophic *flash* flooding is likely. This would be more localized, but devastating where it occurs (in places like Trench Town and Crossroads and Spanish Town.

The likelihood of widespread devastating flooding in Kingston is sadly quite high. It seems likely there will be, at a minimum, significant flooding. The question is a matter of degree rather than occurrence.
 
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