tornado examiner
Member
Okay. The sheer that's kept her at bay isn't forecasted to let up until late Saturday afternoon or evening. So. Rapid intensification likely won't occur for awhile yet.
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Tropical Storm Melissa
- Thread starter Jacob Aden
- Start date
Lake Martin EF4
Member
So...
In a remarkable turn of events...
It looks like Melissa has entered CCC. Doesn't rule out C4/C5, but it definitely had an effect on the model consensus:
Maybe Melissa doesn't even make it past C3, or even C2? That'd be a pretty 2025 outcome.
In a remarkable turn of events...
It looks like Melissa has entered CCC. Doesn't rule out C4/C5, but it definitely had an effect on the model consensus:
Maybe Melissa doesn't even make it past C3, or even C2? That'd be a pretty 2025 outcome.
tornado examiner
Member
What is CCC?
Lake Martin EF4
Member
tornado examiner
Member
I don’t think that's the case. Recent frames show some change in the structuremon Infrared.
N0mz
Member
NOAA recon recorded a 985mb if I’m reading that right. Probably a solid hurricane now.
wx_guy
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8 AM Best Track has it at 982 mb. Definitely falling like a rock now.
TornadoFan
Member
tornado examiner
Member
Eye wall isn't closed as she’e still being heavily sheared, rapid intensification has NOT begun yet.
TornadoFan
Member
tornado examiner
Member
And is typical recon is leaving soon on the day of RI
Cyclonic Paracosm
Member
no recon blows but wow that compared to like 10pm last night is pheww
TornadoFan
Member
Looks like she may have went to the southwest a tad.
Lake Martin EF4
Member
Revising my peak intensity prediction to 155mph/920mb.
Cyclonic Paracosm
Member
oh here we go, ri may very well be incoming, interested in what the 12z runs will say
I’m thinking 145 mph/925 mb
I’m a bit cautious because of Jamaica being a heavy factor right now in whether Melissa absolutely bombs out or fizzles a bit.
tornado examiner
Member
Melissa cannot rapidly intensify until then shear lets up and it's eye can begin to clear. Which will possibly occur later today. I say possibly because some models seem to suggest that sheer won't let up much.
Cyclonic Paracosm
Member
cat 1 per nhc, expected tebdko be a major by end of wee
Melissa is now a hurricane, the first iteration of the name to do so.
| 429 WTNT33 KNHC 251732 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 200 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 ...MELISSA BECOMES A HURRICANE AND IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 75.2W ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES |