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Tropical Storm Melissa

Okay. The sheer that's kept her at bay isn't forecasted to let up until late Saturday afternoon or evening. So. Rapid intensification likely won't occur for awhile yet.
 
So...

In a remarkable turn of events...

It looks like Melissa has entered CCC. Doesn't rule out C4/C5, but it definitely had an effect on the model consensus:
1761382098369.png

Maybe Melissa doesn't even make it past C3, or even C2? That'd be a pretty 2025 outcome.
 
tornado examiner said:
What is CCC?
Click to expand...
Central cold cover. To quoth Wikipedia:
The CCC pattern, with its large and quickly developing mass of thick cirrus clouds spreading out from an area of convection near a tropical cyclone center within a short time frame, indicates little development. When it develops, rainbands and cloud lines around the tropical cyclone weaken and the thick cloud shield obscures the circulation center. While it resembles a CDO pattern, it is rarely seen.
Click to expand...
 
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