tornado examiner
Member
The persistence of the extremely cold convection says it all for how hot the ocean is.
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Tropical Storm Melissa
- Thread starter Jacob Aden
- Start date
TornadoFan
Member
N0mz
Member
Melissa could bring devastating impacts without even landfalling. The amount of moisture + all that orographic forcing could lead to widespread 30+ inch totals
tornado examiner
Member
I do think now the chances of a record breaking hurricane intensity are rapidly decreasing now due to the northward trend.
I do think that it’s uncertain where Melissa will go, but I really don’t want any landfalls to happen, but being in the Caribbean unfortunately that’s practically unavoidable.
Kds86z
Member
tornado examiner
Member
And nevermind the trends are shifting south again. Meaning that highest ceiling is very much back in play.
Melissa really do be doing whatever it wants. And that's gonna be. Horrific.
Melissa really do be doing whatever it wants. And that's gonna be. Horrific.
N0mz
Member
12z euro, which has actually landfalls a little early without hooking around the island, has the island basically 100 covered with 20 inch QPFs, with many readings around 35 inches.
N0mz
Member
By the way here's google AI's model webpage: https://deepmind.google.com/science/weatherlab
On their latest run at peak intensity, which for most ensembles is just south of Jamaica: 18 cat 5s, 22 cat 4s, 7 cat 3s, 3 cat 2s
On their latest run at peak intensity, which for most ensembles is just south of Jamaica: 18 cat 5s, 22 cat 4s, 7 cat 3s, 3 cat 2s
N0mz
Member
HAFS-B 12z run with about 50 hours straight of nonstop convective precipitation at major hurricane strangth
Lake Martin EF4
Member
Just saying - if Melissa goes SW, well south of Jamaica. It can RI. It can do battle with Wilma. It can surpass Wilma. It can go toe to toe with Patricia and Wilma.
But if there's anything we have learned about these superstorms - they can fall. Hard. Patricia weakened faster than it strengthened and failed to landfall as a C5. Wilma IIRC fell below C5 when it hit the Yucatan. For a lesser example, Delta was decimated when it tried to annihilate the Yucatan back in 2020.
So I say - Let it happen. Let Melissa peak at 185kt/870mb or whatever. And once that is done - watch Melissa implode.
Kaboom.
As of right now, I find it more likely that Melissa doesn't quite get to sub-900 mb, although this storm has as good of a chance as it gets before the RI sets in. I think a 160-knot category 5 is absolutely on the table though regardless of the pressure. I don't think the wind will be the story though, the flooding probably will - really worried about the rainfall totals from this one.
tornado examiner
Member
If things continue on track, significant organization should begin tomorrow night, with explosive intensification following over the next couple days.
Whereever it goes is anybody’s guess.
Whereever it goes is anybody’s guess.
majorhurricane1703
Member
Google Deep Minds has a good number of members albeit outliers landfalling in the northeast and Nova Scotia. I certainly believe this has a chance albeit unlikely to hit the northeast.