Severe WX May 4-8th, 2023

[Lake Martin EF4]

According to @JPWX we've got another threat for the South end of this week. Don't quite know where but keep an eye out...

 

[KevinH]

According to @JPWX we've got another threat for the South end of this week. Don't quite know where but keep an eye out...

You just couldn’t wait huh? Lol

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

Please edit the title to include May 4th-5th.

May 4th looks to be more potent that May 5th and it looks like it will impact mostly Texas/Oklahoma.
On the 4th, Oklahoma near OKC looks like it has most favorable environment for tornadoes.

Severe potential for May 5th will mostly be in Arkansas and North Louisiana.

It will most likely slow down and may fizzle away by the time it crosses Mississippi River.

 

[JPWX]

Meanwhile, NWS Memphis mentioning the potential for severe storms Saturday: "
Showers and thunderstorms
return to the forecast late Thursday night into Friday morning.
Deterministic model soundings are showing conditionally unstable to
unstable environments with maximum MLCAPE values around 3000J/kg.
There parameters support severe thunderstorms. The highest values
are currently showing Saturday afternoon-evening."

 

[KevinH]

You MAAAAAAAAY need to edit the title again lol

From what the SPC is saying here, it sounds like you will also need to start a thread for some time after the 10th

 

[TheSuckZone]

Periodic episodes of severe storms are welcome at this point to drop any rain on us we can get

 

[Austin Dawg]

\

The drought is pretty bad in the plains

 

[JPWX]

View attachment 20234\View attachment 20235

The drought is pretty bad in the plains

You can say pretty much goodbye to above normal tornado/severe storm activity for traditional tornado alley due to that drought.

 

[Tanner]

You can say pretty much goodbye to above normal tornado/severe storm activity for traditional tornado alley due to that drought.

I would definitely not say that


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[TH2002]

You can say pretty much goodbye to above normal tornado/severe storm activity for traditional tornado alley due to that drought.

I would definitely not say that

It's hard to say because the drought in most of central OK and parts of southwestern KS is supposed to "remain but improve" per the 3 month drought outlook.

Now I'm not sure how much rain typically comes with an above average tornado season (I'd imagine a LOT) but I've heard that at least seven inches of rain will be necessary to even have an impact on the exceptional drought area. So a lone high precipitation supercell dropping several inches of rain over some town would basically be like hitting a huge shipping container with a rubber mallet - and that's not mentioning all the potential from LP and classic Plains supercells...

Don't quote me on any of this though. Hell, I'm not actually expecting an above average Plains tornado season but at least one notable outbreak this month wouldn't surprise me.

 

[Austin Dawg]

La Nino tends to be pretty dry here in south-central Texas Now that we are moving into El Niño we might actually have some relief from the drought.

 

[TH2002]

SPC’s latest D2 outlook expands the SLGT area eastward and introduces 5% tornado probabilities across north central OK and south central KS.

 

[TH2002]

The GFS refuses to back down and now the HRRR wants to play as well. Both of the models agree the environment will be conducive for severe weather, but the window for tornado activity will be rather narrow, primarily between 21z tomorrow and 01z on Friday. Which means the primary tornado threat could be nocturnal...

 

[CheeselandSkies]

The GFS refuses to back down and now the HRRR wants to play as well. Both of the models agree the environment will be conducive for severe weather, but the window for tornado activity will be rather narrow, primarily between 21z tomorrow and 01z on Friday. Which means the primary tornado threat could be nocturnal...

21Z Thursday - 01Z Friday is 4-8PM CDT Thursday afternoon/evening, so mostly in daylight.

 

[TH2002]

21Z Thursday - 01Z Friday is 4-8PM CDT Thursday afternoon/evening, so mostly in daylight.

Thanks. Wish the model runs on Pivotal Weather had the option to display a certain time zone instead of UTC to make it idiot-proof for dumbbells like myself.

 

[Tanner]

How much of a play are we thinking the cap will be through this active period?

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[Austin Dawg]

81 degrees with a 70-degree dewpoint just North of Austin with a strong, southern wind. This system has a rich atmosphere to work with.

 

[TH2002]

This storm needs to be watched