Severe WX May 4-8th, 2023

[OHWX97]

Del Rio's doing its thing.

 

[TH2002]

Three tornadoes touched down today, but none of them in the 5% risk area. Two weak tornadoes touched down near Compton, CA (the second and third tornadoes to hit the LA area this year) and a sneaky discrete supercell produced a tornado near Alamota and Beeler, KS.

Compton tornado (I believe the first one)


Radar scan from around the time the KS cell was producing

 

[TH2002]

Tomorrow is definitely one of those tricky setups, and the SPC themselves are admitting it's a low-confidence forecast. The GFS is showing a potent tornado threat developing in northeastern Louisiana (as @ashtonlemleywx pointed out), while the HRRR extends that out to the Mississippi Delta and the CIPS is showing the largest tornado threat materializing near the MRGL risk area in northeastern Colorado and western Nebraska.

 

[Tennie]

Compton tornado (I believe the first one)

“Straight Outta Compton”?

 

[TH2002]

The GFS and HRRR continue to insist on placing a tornado threat in northwestern LA (RIGHT IN THE FREAKING RADAR HOLE BETWEEN SHV AND JAN!! WHY??) around the 18z-21z timeframe, although the CIPS isn't picking up on anything at all in the same area. SPC did pull back the MRGL risk to encompass that area, though kept 2% tornado probs further south along the Gulf Coast.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

Tomorrow is definitely one of those tricky setups, and the SPC themselves are admitting it's a low-confidence forecast. The GFS is showing a potent tornado threat developing in northeastern Louisiana (as @ashtonlemleywx pointed out), while the HRRR extends that out to the Mississippi Delta and the CIPS is showing the largest tornado threat materializing near the MRGL risk area in northeastern Colorado and western Nebraska.

I'm recanting my statement from a few days ago. Best tornado threat is in Texas for Friday. Tmrw is Oklahoma and Texas.

I think if anything Southeastern Louisiana and MS Gulf Coast have higher chance than North Louisiana, but I think those will primarily be hailers.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

We are in one of those weird transition phases between Spring pattern and Summer pattern. The models aren't able to handle the convection well, aren't handling mixing well, and have been inconsistent. Thats why you chase everything this time of year.

 

[TH2002]

I'm recanting my statement from a few days ago. Best tornado threat is in Texas for Friday. Tmrw is Oklahoma and Texas.

I think if anything Southeastern Louisiana and MS Gulf Coast have higher chance than North Louisiana, but I think those will primarily be hailers.

Good that north Louisiana is in the clear, because I don’t want to have to stare at this for any longer than I have to. The longer I do, the angrier I get that there isn’t a radar in this area and in north Mississippi.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

Good that north Louisiana is in the clear, because I don’t want to have to stare at this for any longer than I have to. The longer I do, the angrier I get that there isn’t a radar in this area and in north Mississippi.
View attachment 20249

I wouldn't be too concerned with that. It will just be a South moving small bow structure with maybe some small hail and gusty wind. If I thought it was going to doing something crazy, I would already be down there sitting in Tallulah, LA.

 

[TH2002]

I wouldn't be too concerned with that. It will just be a South moving small bow structure with maybe some small hail and gusty wind. If I thought it was going to doing something crazy, I would already be down there sitting in Tallulah, LA.

I was mainly referring to the fact that it looks like a splotch of puke because it's in a Radar Hole™, but as long as it doesn't pose a huge severe threat, I suppose there's a silver lining for now.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

That radar in Monroe Louisiana is absolutely worthless.

 

[TH2002]

That radar in Monroe Louisiana is absolutely worthless.

They could really use an upgrade to WSR-88D. Even JAN's radar (which provides the best scans of northwestern LA, but that's not really saying much) kinda sucks too because new scans only come in every six to eight minutes or so.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

They could really use an upgrade to WSR-88D. Even JAN's radar (which provides the best scans of northwestern LA, but that's not really saying much) kinda sucks too because new scans only come in every six to eight minutes or so.

Apparently its 88D equivalent. The probably is that its not functional and most of the time just isn't working. Go to the website and last radar image is from February.

 

[TH2002]

View attachment 20253

Apparently its 88D equivalent. The probably is that its not functional and most of the time just isn't working. Go to the website and last radar image is from February.

I guess that explains why I didn't even know it was there until you pointed it out to me just now. Pretty difficult to get a scan from a non-functional radar that's probably held together with scotch tape and positive thinking.

 

[JBishopwx]

New Orleans/Slidell radar move now official set for the end of the year.
https://www.weather.gov/lix/klixradarmove

 

[TH2002]

Any thoughts on the D3 risk area in Iowa? I can already say it's making the NAM go haywire and place over 5,000 J/kg of SBCAPE in that area

 

[TheSuckZone]

Wasn't expecting many, if any storms in western kansas today but 18z NAM might be cinco de drunko

 

[rushdude]

There's a Severe Thunderstorm Watch out here around DFW, but it's also 97°F and doesn't feel humid. NWS not big with twister risk today, so this may be a wait-and-see type day.

 

[Austin Dawg]

There's a severe thunderstorm on my doorstep with two tornado signatures.

I'm at the X

 

[TH2002]

The slow-moving supercell riding the NE-KS border is spinning. Really shocked there isn't at least a TOR POSSIBLE tag on it.