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Severe WX May 2019 Plains Severe Event

So far it appears that the damage in Jefferson City, while extensive in some areas, is likely EF-3 or less. So far I haven't seen much that would be classified more than high-end EF-2 or maybe a low-end EF-3 if you stretched it. I haven't seen all the damage -- I'm only commenting on the photos/videos that have been released over the past few hours. There very well could be higher-end damage somewhere else, but I have not yet seen anything to support anything more than a very low-end EF-3 at worst.

The other revealing factor is that there have been no reported fatalities, no one has been reported missing, and the mayor has claimed they also don't have any "serious injuries" is the phrase I believe they used. All those factors weight heavily against this having been a violent (referring to the classification) tornado or there being damage above low-end EF-3. Sure, you can get serious injuries or fatalities with an EF-1/EF-2, but it's incredibly rare for an EF-4+ or even a strong EF-3 to hit a heavily populated area without there being serious injuries and fatalities.

Lot of older homes impacted, and they are typically on a slab, no basement, and not of the best construction quality. You'd expect to see those homes more significantly damaged if this tornado was more than a low-end EF-3.

Jefferson City won't realize it or feel it right how, but they were extremely fortunate. An EF-4+ at night in such a highly-populated area with older construction would've likely produced fatality counts much closer to Hackleburg, Joplin, Tuscaloosa-Bham, etc than the zero count given so far.
 
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akt1985 said:
Any word on Webber Falls, Oklahoma this morning?
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It's flooding simply because the Arkansas is heavily flooded and recent rainfall has really exacerbated the entire situation. That said, supposedly the barges are hung up in a bend of the river a couple of miles away. Plus, they now believe only a few gates would be damaged instead of the dam failing. Likely to be catastrophic flooding all along the Arkansas no matter what.
 
There’s a small 10% sigtor area in TX/OK along with larger 5% areas in the southern plains and the mid-Atlantic (including me). Hopefully not another day where things ramp up rapidly in the short-term.

Good thing we’ll finally get a break—oh wait, no, there’s already a severe risk for each of the next five days.
 
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I missed the action overnight. The Jefferson City tornado clearly had strong (EF-2/EF-3) potential based on velocity and CC fields. I'm so glad to hear there are no fatalities. I've seen injury counts of 20-30 with a couple of them serious. Who knows, as there were reports of 100 plus injured earlier., which isn't the case. Clearly a best case scenario with nighttime tornadoes. No matter the intensity.
 
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Yeah casualty counts appeared to have been entirely wrong as usual. Based on radar data the tornado was likely stronger SW of town where I still think we will find some higher end damage. Given the low casualty toll not so sure it was a violent tornado though despite TDS height strongly indicating such.
 
So glad to breathe a sigh of relief this morning. The tornado had strong potential earlier in it's lifecycle, when it was closer to Eldon. I think this was a late stage tornado that wasn't that wide or strong, based on the velocity data. At one point about 10 minutes before hitting town, I actually thought the tornado had dissipated as the debris signature had scattered and the couplet was very weak. Even as it went through town, the couplet was small and not that strong, which was my first prayer as to this not being a complete tragedy.

I think this tornado will likely be rated higher based on what it did earlier in its lifecycle. I wouldn't be surprised to see only a few EF-2 damage indicators in Jefferson City once the NWS has completed their survey.
 
If the apartment complex damage mentioned on scanners is accurate then that's probably going to be some substantial damage indicators but otherwise I'm not hearing that much. Many think it hit toward the end of a very long path, with a TDS all the way, so I think there will be highrr end damage indicators SOMEWHERE along that path.
 
Couple of things...some video shot last night of the tornado before/as it entered Jefferson City seemed to show multiple areas of circulation. Wouldn't be surprised if there were pockets of higher end damage from sub-vortices, or perhaps, a larger circulation that didn't stay down the whole time (explaining why some areas seem to have damage higher off the ground versus damage all the way down) and a secondary circulation smaller in size that made full contact with the ground in areas of more concentrated damage that extends all the way to ground level. Pure speculation on my part, so the ensuing surveys will shed a lot of light on what actually happened. Sadly, because the Mizzou Radar is down, radar data from last night is only available from sites further away from the event.
 
Evan said:
Couple of things...some video shot last night of the tornado before/as it entered Jefferson City seemed to show multiple areas of circulation. Wouldn't be surprised if there were pockets of higher end damage from sub-vortices, or perhaps, a larger circulation that didn't stay down the whole time (explaining why some areas seem to have damage higher off the ground versus damage all the way down) and a secondary circulation smaller in size that made full contact with the ground in areas of more concentrated damage that extends all the way to ground level. Pure speculation on my part, so the ensuing surveys will shed a lot of light on what actually happened. Sadly, because the Mizzou Radar is down, radar data from last night is only available from sites further away from the event.
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Wait, which station was down? KSLX is the closest one and that's the one I was using to monitor the storm and post the screengrabs of the 4-panel data.
 
Even from the distant radars it did seem there was a complicated couplet evolution/possible handoff south of town, reflectivity showed a major change in storm structure too. Wouldn't be too shocking
 
xJownage said:
Wait, which station was down? KSLX is the closest one and that's the one I was using to monitor the storm and post the screengrabs of the 4-panel data.
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Mizzou X-Band radar (MZZU) in Columbia only miles away from the tornado - would have been super useful
 
Equus said:
Yeah casualty counts appeared to have been entirely wrong as usual. Based on radar data the tornado was likely stronger SW of town where I still think we will find some higher end damage. Given the low casualty toll not so sure it was a violent tornado though despite TDS height strongly indicating such.
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Curious to know if anyone knows if TDS signatures are impacted by radar beam deformation due to the curvature of the earth from sites further away from a tornado in a case like this?
 
Equus said:
Mizzou X-Band radar (MZZU) in Columbia only miles away from the tornado - would have been super useful
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Yep. This is the one I'm referring to. A federal grant helped get this radar purchased and setup in 2015. It nicely covers the areas in Missouri like Jefferson City that are a little far from the other radar sites in the state. For whatever reason, it has been down since early April. I don't know if Gibson Ridge software can pull up "research" sites like MZZU and KCRI or not. I think it should be able to. I sometimes use KCRI near OKC even though it has a five minute refresh/scan time. Sometimes it provides a slightly better look than KTLX.
 
Evan said:
Curious to know if anyone knows if TDS signatures are impacted by radar beam deformation due to the curvature of the earth from sites further away from a tornado in a case like this?
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To my knowledge, the only real effect is the height of the beam obviously increases with range.
 
More Jefferson City damage



Some fairly impressive stuff... have mobile homes obliterated and debris swept way downstream so at least EF2, large metal buildings destroyed which is easy to do in even a weak tornado, frame homes and apartments with at least EF1 damage, and impressive tree damage. Maybe a little debarking. With contextual evidence (swaths of trees snapped or stripped of branches) I'd say the Jefferson City part of the track is at least EF2 but have yet to see many well constructed homes with much more than that despite a heavily populated track.
 
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