Severe WX Marginal Svr risk 11/2-11/3 (1 Viewer)


StormStalker

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...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated severe thunderstorm or two may occur across northern
Mississippi and northwest Alabama between 4 pm to 10 pm CDT, while a
few other strong storms could occur this evening across the Midwest.

...Northern portions of Mississippi and Alabama...
A weak mid-level impulse over the Ark-La-Tex this morning will
continue eastward and cross the region later this afternoon into
early evening. Low clouds remain relatively prevalent across
northern portions of MS and AL late this morning, but a gradual
erosion of low-level clouds will occur this afternoon while the
boundary layer otherwise continues to moisten (middle to upper 60s F
surface dewpoints). Ascent related to the aforementioned mid-level
impulse should contribute to isolated thunderstorm development by
mid/late afternoon within an increasingly unstable air mass,
particularly across northern MS.

While mid-level winds this morning (12Z observed soundings) were
relatively weak, a gradual strengthening will occur today with
deep-layer shear increasing to around 35-40 kt by late afternoon.
This would conditionally support a supercell mode with all severe
hazards possible, potentially including a tornado risk in the
presence of a sufficiently moist environment and approximately
150-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH.
 

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