• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe WX March 3rd-5th 2025 Severe Weather Threat



Across eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi, where better
low-level moisture will be present and some heating may result in
greater instability, discrete supercells may be possible. This is a
scenario supported by the HRRR consistently. Even if mature
supercells do not develop ahead of the main squall line, the weaker
forced southern end of the squall line will likely result in a less
defined line with embedded supercells. Any supercells which develop,
ahead of or within the line, will pose a threat for strong tornadoes
given RAP forecast STP values around 3 to 4 this afternoon and
evening. Additionally, the strong kinematic environment will support
QLCS tornadoes within the better defined squall line.
Click to expand...
 
Winds will need to veer more southerly for sufficient destabilization to occur here. Right now they are too southeasterly over LA.

With that said, a potential significant tornado threat to NOLA on Mardi Gras sounds like a recipe for trouble to me.
 
I mentioned a few days ago that I'm training my very own custom tornado model that blends traditional weather modeling algorithms with quantum entanglement to more accurately predict the timing, location and intensity of tornadoes. The objective is to create a model that can predict individual tornado tracks, timing and intensity within a 5 mile margin of error and with a <15 minute margin, hours before the event itself.

I'm happy to report the results so far have been quite promising, although more refinement is needed. Here's the projected risk map from an individual event I backtested (December 10th, 2023, the Mayfield Tornado)

The image below shows the model's prediction of the event roughly 12 hours before the main tornado forms (about the same time as an SPC 06Z update, or the first D1 forecast).

Obviously there's some noise/data leakage that needs to be addressed (the big 2nd risk are on the left is a clear false positive), but the model produced a highly accurate forecast for the tornadogensis coordinates of the Mayfield tornado.

I'll continue refining the model and will start running it on upcoming events!
 

Attachments

  • Image 3-4-25 at 12.08 PM.jpg
    Image 3-4-25 at 12.08 PM.jpg
    110.6 KB · Views: 0
Last edited:
lake.effect said:
I mentioned a few days ago that I'm training my very own custom tornado model that blends traditional weather modeling algorithms with quantum entanglement to more accurate predict the timing, location and intensity of tornadoes. The objective is to create a model that can predict individual tornado tracks, timing and intensity within a 5 mile margin of error and with a <15 minute margin hours before the event itself.

I'm happy to report the results so far have been quite promising, although more refinement is needed. Here's the projected risk map from an individual event I backtested (December 10th, 2023, the Mayfield Tornado)

The image below shows the model's prediction of the event roughly 12 hours before the main tornado forms (about the same time as an SPC 06Z update, or the first D1 forecast).

Obviously there's some noise/data leakage that needs to be addressed (the big 2nd risk are on the left is a clear false positive), but the model produced a highly accurate forecast for the tornadogensis coordinates of the Mayfield tornado.

I'll continue refining the model and will start running it on upcoming events!
Click to expand...
Intriguing and intuitive! I look forward to seeing it in use!
 
Justin Hindman said:
So far this stuff looks like crap. It’s early way early, but I really don’t see this starting if it does for a few more hours
Click to expand...
Instability is almost zilch right now, don't expect a whole lot worth chasing until later in the afternoon and into the evening - Jackson area or a little west would probably be the area to be at.
 
Justin Hindman said:
So far this stuff looks like crap. It’s early way early, but I really don’t see this starting if it does for a few more hours
Click to expand...
The WW was just issued a little while ago and doesn’t expire for a few more hours. The line is JUST entering the WW area. Be PATIENT lol

You know Dixie Alley plays games and can have a few tricks up her sleeve. She doesn’t follow the rules.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top