Severe WX March 3rd-5th 2025 Severe Weather Threat

[Justin Hindman]

Where is your target area for the day?

Right now around Natchez.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Right now around Natchez.

Safe travels, hopefully you catch something

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Sounds like there was a damaging possible tornado in Ada, OK and some significant (>75 MPH) winds in the DFW area shortly before 12Z (so technically part of yesterday's outlook/reports map).

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

uh oh

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

merger soon, looks good rn

 

[Todd]

Around 7:38 AM CST there is a report of overturned camper trailers at Big Al Barefoot Bay located north of Rocky Mound, TX (northwest of Pittsburg) with an unknown number of injuries reported. This is in the county warning area for the NWS Shreveport.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

observed tor

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I guess we are the nowcasting mode. Newest hrrr runs shunted moisture more south in Alabama.

 

[tornado examiner]

Why is it that the thermo’s are so bad? It makes no sense too me with a trough this Atmospheric Anti-Climax.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Why is it that the thermo’s are so bad? It makes no sense too me with a trough this Atmospheric Anti-Climax.

welcome to weather

 

[tornado examiner]

Its like. Shouldn’t the mega trough be hauling huge amounts of wet air northwards. But no its a measley warm sector and its single handedly nerfing this event when early models suggested something much bigger.

Strange

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Its like. Shouldn’t the mega trough be hauling huge amounts of wet air northwards. But no its a measley warm sector and its single handedly nerfing this event when early models suggested something much bigger.

It's because the winds are out of the southeast I think. Winds out of the south would advect more moisture into the south.

 

[tornado examiner]

It's because the winds are out of the southeast I think. Winds out of the south would advect more moisture into the south.

One simple stat aye? That's something

 

[Clancy]

This outlook is so... angular!

 

[tornado examiner]

Well there is alot more potential for daytime heating with what would be far less cloud cover in the warm sector than what was forcast.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Well there is alot more potential for daytime heating with what would be far less cloud cover in the warm sector than what was forcast

I'm curious to see how real time observations compare to forecasted environment. I'll be watching that, and for any wrinkles.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Its like. Shouldn’t the mega trough be hauling huge amounts of wet air northwards. But no its a measley warm sector and its single handedly nerfing this event when early models suggested something much bigger.

Strange

I think it has to do with the trajectories around the cold ridge that just moved off the east coast. Although lee cyclogenesis commencing yesterday turned the winds out of the SSE across TX/OK/the western Gulf, winds across the rest of the Gulf remained out of the east, funneling recycled cP air into the return flow instead of richer mT air from the BoC/Caribbean.

You can kind of see it here in Trey's video from yesterday, look at the wind barbs on the surface map at around the 6:35 mark:

 

[tornado examiner]

I'm curious to see how real time observations compare to forecasted environment. I'll be watching that, and for any wrinkles.

Prefrontal supercells are likely….still unlikely…but if one random one pops up and sustains itself it’ll be curious to watch.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Prefrontal supercells are likely….still unlikely…but if one random one pops up and sustains itself it’ll be curious to watch.

I'm not even sure if we need prefrontal supercells for bad tornadoes today, the line looke rather broken and kinky on simulated radar. It's more so the moisture, and if we can get a relatively unstable atmosphere that meshes with the best shear.