Severe WX March 3rd-5th 2025 Severe Weather Threat

[Parker Copeland]

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Well that's definitely a look on the 12z Euro. Though significant issues with moisture return limit the severe threat on this particular run.

tbf, models always under do moisture return heavily and we like never get a good idea till obs soundings/meso analysis are running

 

[Clancy]

tbf, models always under do moisture return heavily and we like never get a good idea till obs soundings/meso analysis are running

After the kind of moisture advection we had with the event earlier this month, I trust no system to slack on dews.

 

[andyhb]

The storm track with both the lead system and the main one after are going to be borderline too far south for meaningful moisture return/having too much junk convection with this one, unless it lifts north a bit.

 

[UK_EF4]

Some pretty large run-run variability here with the 18z (L) when compared to the 12z (R). To be expected in an uncertain setup such as this one, of course, but interesting to watch evolve nonetheless.

 

[Fred Gossage]

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Some pretty large run-run variability here with the 18z (L) when compared to the 12z (R). To be expected in an uncertain setup such as this one, of course, but interesting to watch evolve nonetheless.

The 18z run is much more consistent with the general idea the GFS ensembles have been painting. The operational went firmly against its own ensembles for the 6z and 12z runs when it broke the energy into pieces like it did. The 18z op GFS is likely a course correction.

 

[KevinH]

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Some pretty large run-run variability here with the 18z (L) when compared to the 12z (R). To be expected in an uncertain setup such as this one, of course, but interesting to watch evolve nonetheless.

FYI: This time period has a thread already

Severe WX - March 3rd-5th 2025 Severe Weather Threat

I will start the thread for next week's severe threat. Looking very interesting.

talkweather.com

 

[UK_EF4]

FYI: This time period has a thread already

Severe WX - March 3rd-5th 2025 Severe Weather Threat

I will start the thread for next week's severe threat. Looking very interesting.

talkweather.com

Oops did I put it in the wrong one - my bad!

I thought this thread we are in now was for March 4-5th?

 

[JPWX]

Oops did I put it in the wrong one - my bad!

I thought this thread we are in now was for March 4-5th?

It is. You are correct

 

[KevinH]

Oops did I put it in the wrong one - my bad!

I thought this thread we are in now was for March 4-5th?

Oh gees.. you are right. My apologies. I had multiple tabs of both threads open LOL

 

[Clancy]

As Fred mentioned, 18Z GFS back to a much more potent-looking setup for many of us.

 

[KevinH]

As Fred mentioned, 18Z GFS back to a much more potent-looking setup for many of us.
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I am not the best at reading these (at all), but that just doesn’t look good.

@Clancy SIR… you have GOT to keep posting LOL!!!

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I am not the best at reading these (at all), but that just doesn’t look good.

@Clancy SIR… you have GOT to keep posting LOL!!!

Looks like your neck of the woods is in play this time kevin

 

[MichelleH]

As Fred mentioned, 18Z GFS back to a much more potent-looking setup for many of us.
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Oof...

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Oof...

oof tis correct

 

[KevinH]

Looks like your neck of the woods is in play this time kevin

Yeah at least until the models flop again hahahaha

3-3-2019 was the closest I have ever been to a tornado… I’m good!

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Wondering if we see a day 6/7 outline tommorow. 18z GFS and 12z euro are pretty similar in showing a severe threat over the southeast

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Wondering if we see a day 6/7 outline tommorow. 18z GFS and 12z euro are pretty similar in showing a severe threat over the southeast

yaaah, der goat but 1-2 severe episodes could occur just need time to sort out variance and pinpoint a region for outlooks

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Man what's up with the supercell bonanza on the euro my goodness lol.

 

[KevinH]

Man what's up with the supercell bonanza on the euro my goodness lol. View attachment 34156View attachment 34157

Have to LOVE those nocturnal severe threats

/sarcasm OFF

 

[kcyalater]

Man what's up with the supercell bonanza on the euro my goodness lol. View attachment 34156View attachment 34157

yeah can we not???