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Severe WX March 30th- April 1st 2023 (South, Southeast, Ohio Valley, Upper Midwest)

UncleJuJu98 said:
I do want to note this... Trends from the hrrr have really ratcheted the threat up for north and parts of central Alabama.

For embedded supercells and accompanying tornado risk.
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I hope this doesn’t work out but I’m curious as to the board’s thought on this “junk convection” we are seeing this AM…hoping that mitigates things a little perhaps.
 
jiharris0220 said:
It’s coming to the point that nowcasting is much more viable than models. When you see cape values above 2500 and SigT parameters above 6 when it’s not even 9 o-clock yet, it’s a pretty ominous sign.View attachment 19364View attachment 19363
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Yeah last Friday was a perfect example of now casting. We were seeing real time moisture return and actual dew/temp readings out of Mississippi right at the same time the models were still showing a colder bias.
 
Blizzard1 said:
I hope this doesn’t work out but I’m curious as to the board’s thought on this “junk convection” we are seeing this AM…hoping that mitigates things a little perhaps.
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My opinion is that it's going to be more of a potential mitigator on the eastern edges of the risk areas down south. But we'll see.

Edited to add: not necessarily the convection this AM. I think the atmosphere will likely recover. But I do think there will be a lot of messy convection later.
 
treypops said:
My opinion is that it's going to be more of a potential mitigator on the eastern edges of the risk areas down south. But we'll see.

Edited to add: not necessarily the convection this AM. I think the atmosphere will likely recover. But I do think there will be a lot of messy convection later.
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Specifically in the northern section, forcing is prodigal there lol
 
treypops said:
My opinion is that it's going to be more of a potential mitigator on the eastern edges of the risk areas down south. But we'll see.
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Im not sure that I've ever seen junk storms like this limit severe potential for a event. Unless we are banking on sunshine and this limits sunshine, but I don't think it's the case. Only real time ive seen convection or scud storms/rain limit overall severe later on would be from a MCS or a convective complex near the gulf and neither of those will happen.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Im not sure that I've ever seen junk storms like this limit severe potential for a event. Unless we are banking on sunshine and this limits sunshine, but I don't think it's the case. Only real time ive seen convection or scud storms/rain limit overall severe later on would be from a MCS or a convective complex near the gulf and neither of those will happen.
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Yeah, I edited the post because I kinda misread the original. I don't think it's the current convection that would mitigate anything. I think there will be a lot of it later though and that's probably going to tamp down the threat as it moves east.
 
FWIW Convective Chronicles talked about early convection (that's" junk convection" right?) 2 minutes into this morning's video, and he shows it clearing out of the main northern threat area. I don't know enough about the science to make a judgment, but FWIW he didn't seem too concerned about it.

 
Clouds still over much of MS but one thing I'm noticing is the little storm in Northeast Texas that producing a lot of lightning.
 
My guess is that the southern bimodal high risk will be introduced ( if they introduce one) will be portions of extreme north Mississippi into much of west Tennessee. Right around the Tennessee Mississippi border will be rocked

Again to all the Mississippians in here.. Smithville has a magnet so I would hunker down in a storm shelter if a storm comes near you today lol
 
the spatial area of today's threat is staggering. its nuts seeing models hone in on multiple distinct areas of significance and not something you see very often.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
My guess is that the southern bimodal high risk will be introduced ( if they introduce one) will be portions of extreme north Mississippi into much of west Tennessee. Right around the Tennessee Mississippi border will be rocked

Again to all the Mississippians in here.. Smithville has a magnet so I would hunker down in a storm shelter if a storm comes near you today lol
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Smithville is a little too far east to be considered a high threat, but your point stands - folks in that area know the drill.
 
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