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Severe WX March 30th- April 1st 2023 (South, Southeast, Ohio Valley, Upper Midwest)

New 21z rap has a 9 out of 10 stp on the belly button of Missouri. Not sure it'll be made use of though.

Would be surprised if the 15% tornado risk is dropped further into missippi. I think north mississippi will be ground zero for potential long track strong tornadoes... Again
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
New 21z rap has a 9 out of 10 stp on the belly button of Missouri. Not sure it'll be made use of though.

Would be surprised if the 15% tornado risk is dropped further into missippi. I think north mississippi will be ground zero for potential long track strong tornadoes... Again
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Ground zero for long trackers. Look to me ne arky nw tenn into mo. Bootheel sw Kentucky that are really is t dat off seeing a small high risk placed over that region I can see the moderate expand bit se
 
I usually stick to this forum,#alwx on twitter, and of course James Spann (I’m in Tuscaloosa county so he’s a staple always). Unfortunately due to my signal being horrid where I live, I end up only briefly seeing radars when they want to work. I can’t wait to be out of a rental trailer and closer to a town with high speed internet again. In my case I watch for every county around me so we have enough time to get to my landlords basement or a tornado shelter which luckily Tuscaloosa is full of after April 27th. I’m babbling.
 
Mississippi friends please be careful. There’s obviously still substantial infrastructure damage from the other day. Make sure you know where you’re going way in advance. I know you know this or you wouldn’t be on here to read this. Just tell your friends and family too.
 
What a way for MKX to start off their afternoon AFD for southern Wisconsin...

Tonight through Saturday:

Very interesting (and potentially dangerous) weather ahead of us
tonight through Saturday as we go from winter to summer and back
to winter in a very short time span. (Long Discussion Ahead)
Click to expand...
 
I'm born and raised in The Bootheel of MO. Moved away almost 20 years ago, but all my family is there. Kinda nervous about the setup for tomorrow. I live in the TN Valley now and am so glad I found this forum a few years ago. Gonna be wild it looks like. [emoji120][emoji120]

Sent from my T767W using Tapatalk
 
Kind of a summation of trey’s video on tomorrow:

Northern threat, cold core setup, smaller window for discrete cells, kind of a messy mode before everything goes into a line just due to the overwhelming amount of forcing.

Southern threat: looks concerning, he was seeing some weird low level instability quirks on the NAM (LLLR, Cap etc) but if those work themselves out or were just a quirk in the NAM then this threat looks pretty potent.

Some of the hodographs he pulled for the southern mode for tomorrow were downright chilling.
 
CentralKyWeather said:
I completely understand! But portions of SW KY are in MDT risk while small. But appreciate everything you all do on this forum.
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Wait… I didn’t create this thread lol

If any part of a state is in ENH, MOD or HIGH risk I would include it in the thread title. Unless there were several states, then I would just change the title to incl the region.
 
Could parts of Michigan be seeing any tornadic weather? I know most, if not all, of the heavy supercell action is gonna end by the time the system hits the state, but I've heard a few times now that the supercells will form a line that'll continue east. Could that produce spin ups?
 
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