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Severe WX March 26th-27th, 2023

Definitely a bit harrowing to wake up and find out that something like that happened so close to home overnight. The West Point damage looks really bad (at least EF3 from what I've seen).
 
Depending upon the preliminary tornado rating of the Amory/Smithville tornado, the last F3 tornado to occur just south of downtown Amory MS (south side of Amory) was November 26th, 1973. What's significant about 1973? 1973 through 1976 was a 3 year La Nina. 1973 also ranked 5 in the top 13 years that went longest without the first typhoon in the Western Pacific at 184 days. Spring 1973 had 480 tornadoes. March 1973 had 80 and April 1973 had 150. 1973 had a total of 54 tornadoes in Mississippi. So far in 2023, the preliminary count for the state is 17 tornadoes. The Memphis CWA in 1973 had 32 tornadoes with 14 of those occurring in North MS. The Jackson CWA in 1973 had 50 tornadoes with 41 occurring in Central MS.
 
Brett adair is going to storm chase in south central Alabama it looks like. He's heading to LeGrange currently to tour damage
 
HRRR modelling higher instability values (well into the night, might I add) moving further north than previously anticipated. Could spell trouble for areas currently north of the wedge.
1679849123199.png
 
15z HRRR shows a decent window for semi-discrete convection until it gets kinda blobby after 0z. The one thought I have is that the low-level shear isn't impressive when you get away from the boundary, but if you get a supercell or two riding the boundary that could be a big problem.
 
warneagle said:
15z HRRR shows a decent window for semi-discrete convection until it gets kinda blobby after 0z. The one thought I have is that the low-level shear isn't impressive when you get away from the boundary, but if you get a supercell or two riding the boundary that could be a big problem.
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Boundary-riders in Dixie have a history of being substantial troublemakers and can make for very unpleasant surprises even on marginal setup days.
 
It's going to be a VERY active night it looks like. Don't think anybody gave the MMFS credit but it did pretty good with the threat from two night ago.

Very active along the Maritime boundary!

 
Clancy said:
Boundary-riders in Dixie have a history of being substantial troublemakers and can make for very unpleasant surprises even on marginal setup days.
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Yeah and the upscale growth certainly isn't the end of the line for the sigtor threat, the CAMs are in pretty good agreement with some substantial UH within that MCS until 03-04z.
 
warneagle said:
Radar being down during your area's biggest severe threat of the year? Couldn't be me.

(It's totally me, KJGX does this every single time)
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Don't forget the early January long track event all though.. this is technically a higher risk outline then that day.
 
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