CheeselandSkies
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- 3,840
- Location
- Madison, WI
I'm thinking a few factors have precluded an upgrade to high risk today, despite the absolutely classic 500mb structure and strong surface mass response with this system.
1.) The area of greatest threat is relatively small - the moderate risk area is about the size of a typical high risk area you'd see on a day like 4/27/11, 3/2/12 or 3/25/21, and the moderate risk would then have to be expanded to surround that, and the relatively high confidence long-track supercell tornado threat just isn't there over that large of an area.
2.) Going along with that, the time window for discrete warm-sector supercell activity is fairly narrow as per the HRRR runs starting this morning. There should still be about a 2-3 hour window, but after that a transition to QLCS/bow echoes is apparent.
3.) It looks like the area with the best window for a discrete mode again will be somewhat displaced from the area with the strongest low-level shear. If there were a strong CAM signal for a discrete supercell riding just ahead of the triple point as the cyclogenesis really ramps up, that would have high potential for a "VVLT" (violent very-long-track) tornado or tornado family in 12/10/21 or 3/18/1925 style given the hodographs on forecast soundings just ahead of the surface low, but most CAMS including the HRRR have a very quick transition to a quasi-linear/messy convective mode there.
Again to reiterate though - just because a threat doesn't reach high risk caliber doesn't make it a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency, and outlook category becomes meaningless when a tornado warning goes out for your location.
1.) The area of greatest threat is relatively small - the moderate risk area is about the size of a typical high risk area you'd see on a day like 4/27/11, 3/2/12 or 3/25/21, and the moderate risk would then have to be expanded to surround that, and the relatively high confidence long-track supercell tornado threat just isn't there over that large of an area.
2.) Going along with that, the time window for discrete warm-sector supercell activity is fairly narrow as per the HRRR runs starting this morning. There should still be about a 2-3 hour window, but after that a transition to QLCS/bow echoes is apparent.
3.) It looks like the area with the best window for a discrete mode again will be somewhat displaced from the area with the strongest low-level shear. If there were a strong CAM signal for a discrete supercell riding just ahead of the triple point as the cyclogenesis really ramps up, that would have high potential for a "VVLT" (violent very-long-track) tornado or tornado family in 12/10/21 or 3/18/1925 style given the hodographs on forecast soundings just ahead of the surface low, but most CAMS including the HRRR have a very quick transition to a quasi-linear/messy convective mode there.
Again to reiterate though - just because a threat doesn't reach high risk caliber doesn't make it a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency, and outlook category becomes meaningless when a tornado warning goes out for your location.
