cincywx
Member
18z soundings
looks like sbcape has come down a bit in ms, and appears to be some vbv in the mid levels but the drier air looks to be eroding?
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Severe WX March 23-25th, 2023
- Thread starter Lake Martin EF4
- Start date
looks like sbcape has come down a bit in ms, and appears to be some vbv in the mid levels but the drier air looks to be eroding?
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- Birmingham
Definitely.
TornadoFan
Member
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- 5,237
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- Colorado
Starkville MS obs is really broken. Shows 111 degree temps with 104 dp. Lol.
Equus
Member
LIX vs JAN definitely seems to show better low level moisture is incoming, still decent spread at JAN which has limited CAPE but those higher dews aren't that far off now as low level southerly flow kicks in stronger
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Feels like a sauna in here
TornadoFan
Member
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- Colorado
Starkville really is on something.
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- Birmingham
My biggest concern is we see mixing with all the sunshine and then the LLJ kicks in and takes use of those higher LLLRs from that prolonged sunshine, really aiding in the low level instability and violent nature of storms.
Cyclogenesis should start soon and really hightail that WAA and increase the shear.
Cyclogenesis should start soon and really hightail that WAA and increase the shear.
atrainguy
Member
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- Linden, MI
Yeah I was going to say I think the moisture for JAN is on the way
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- Birmingham
Yup, got my coffee brewing a new tornado watch will be needed. Like @treypops said the current one is not the threat we've been talking about.
Equus
Member
Usually our issue is cloud cover and rainfall limits low level lapse rates with very little surface heating and we're nearly saturated, having these steep low level lapse rates and surface heating with lower dews and bringing in the better moisture later after we warm up more than expected is definitely an interesting change
warneagle
Member
I wouldn't put too much stock in the JAN sounding right now because that's not representative of what the environment will be like at go time there. SHV is more indicative of what the dynamics will be like in the future (although they'll probably be stronger further east due to stronger surface cyclogenesis and the stronger LLJ. The best dynamic support is several hours off from the MDT area and the moisture should increase as we get stronger low level flow; the fact that the Tds are a few degrees higher at LIX suggests there's more moisture upstream waiting to be transported northward.
Excellent advice here.
Excellent explanation
warneagle
Member
Bear in mind that I was a liberal arts major and have absolutely no idea what I'm talking about. Caveat emptor.
Yeah, and not just southeast Arkansas.
No hedging allowed, my friend.
would pay good money to see that concert
warneagle
Member
Is this in reference to the MDT era (where it's obviously going to be a PDS) or the area northeast of the current watch? I assume he's referring to the latter.