Severe WX March 23-25th, 2023

[Justin Hindman]

Just curious to anybody chasing..what locations are y'all scouting this afternoon?

I’m chasing. Headed to Louisiana . West of Jackson right now

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I’m chasing. Headed to Louisiana . West of Jackson right now

Stay safe brother

 

[warneagle]

As I said earlier though, the low-level mass response being no less robust than previously advertised (which it looks like it should still be) will be critical for the moisture recovery, so that might have been responsible for confusing the HRRR.

Yeah the strong surface cyclogenesis and strengthening LLJ should take care of any issue with moisture especially once you get into Mississippi. It might limit the ceiling but I don't think it's something that's gonna be a sharp divider between big event and total non-event like it was a couple of weeks ago.

 

[Equus]

Yeah there's still a ton of time for the LLJ to take care of that, many hours before likely initiation there; a little surprised to see so much sunshine in the risk area though which is certainly interesting to watch

 

[UK_EF4]

Not only will the more southern discrete mode be very dangerous... the QLCS will likely contain multiple embedded supercells, and strong tornadoes seem fairly likely here as well. Really high end event possible today, potentially event of the year.

 

[treypops]

Yeah there's still a ton of time for the LLJ to take care of that, many hours before likely initiation there; a little surprised to see so much sunshine in the risk area though which is certainly interesting to watch

Mississippi Delta is currently bathed in sunshine and warm temps.

 

[Equus]

I got 76/60 here already this far northeast with mostly sunny skies, going to be a good bit of low level warmth as the LLJ kicks in later and starts bringing moisture north

 

[Justin Hindman]

Mississippi Delta is currently bathed in sunshine and warm temps.

Nothing but sun in Jackson ms

 

[Clancy]

Though storms won't get here until morning tomorrow, having all-day sun around here definitely doesn't give things the feel of the usual Dixie event.

 

[treypops]

I got 76/60 here already this far northeast with mostly sunny skies, going to be a good bit of low level warmth as the LLJ kicks in later and starts bringing moisture north

Currently 81/62 in Shelby, MS.

 

[Clancy]

Fresh Tornado Watch.

 

[warneagle]

Tornado watch is up for the ArkLaTex

 

[treypops]

Fresh Tornado Watch.

Unfortunately I think this is just the warm up act.

We've got the Black Crowes playing....but the Stones are hitting the stage later.

 

[cincywx]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 75
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2023

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY NEAR AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION, WITH ADDITIONAL AND SOMEWHAT MORE
ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL
INCLUDING TORNADO RISK IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS STORMS PROGRESS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[warneagle]

18z soundings

 

[aujerm]

Probably a severe weather 101 question, but I’ll ask.. the outflow boundary is indicated by the thin line of reflectivity moving south across pine bluff correct?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Probably a severe weather 101 question, but I’ll ask.. the outflow boundary is indicated by the thin line of reflectivity moving south across pine bluff correct?

Yes, they can help instigate more violent storms if they ride it, pretty important piece of info, it may influence storms later today

 

[treypops]

Probably a severe weather 101 question, but I’ll ask.. the outflow boundary is indicated by the thin line of reflectivity moving south across pine bluff correct?

Affirmative.

 

[Equus]

I wish SPC's soundings were not transparent gifs lol, makes it hard to display properly in other places