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Severe WX March 23-25th, 2023

not to beat a dead horse but i find it interesting that mesoanalysis is already showing 1000-1500 j/kg of sbcape across MS at this time, while most of today's hrrr runs have underdone the current sbcape by *a lot*.

17z SBcape via mesoanalysis:

1679678500183.png

projected 18z sbcape via 16z HRRR:

16zHRRRsbcapeValid18z.JPG

i'd say that's quite the disparity. there will undoubtedly be implications, but how significant is yet to be determined.
 
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I think if 18z model runs from the majority of CAMS join the HRRR type solution the SPC will likely upgrade to high risk, despite it being 20z. HRRR is now producing this high end scenario as the over performing thermos are becoming apparent so my assumption is the rest of the 18z cams will do the same thing. Either way - the potential for a high risk caliber event is there. Numerous strong tornadoes likely.
 
warneagle said:
Really really anxious to see those 18z soundings, especially in terms of that dry punch in the mid-level since that seems like the biggest potential mitigating factor.
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Completely agree, I'm also anxious to see the soundings. The models are great and all but they're ultimately going to forecast on what information they're given. In this point of a forecast the outcome is better predicted by a person with knowledge and experience vs a computer. I've been pondering that mid-level issue since early this morning, and the "loaded-gun" stout cap that's been in place.
 



One thing we have with the substantial sunshine across Mississippi is mixing the drier air seen on the 12z sounding closer to the surface, which is leading to warmer temperatures and lower dews; very steep lapse rates to be sure with 80s/low 60s spread as drier air heats more effectively but that's going to raise LCLs and we will want to see some moisture advection to bring dews up through the evening

Interested in any special 18z soundings we get; if deeper moisture makes it into northern MS, and with a strong LLJ later I don't see why it couldn't, looks very dangerous
 
Penitentes said:
Parameters and observations are clearly shaping up alright but I'm still not certain we would see the SPC upgrade. Evan Bentley has said recently that they are wary of 20z upgrades to high risk in particular, though it's not totally out of the question

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As I recall 4/28/14 was one and that verified pretty well with the Louisville EF4 and Tupelo EF3 among others.
 
Equus said:



One thing we have with the substantial sunshine across Mississippi is mixing the drier air seen on the 12z sounding closer to the surface, which is leading to warmer temperatures and lower dews; very steep lapse rates to be sure with 80s/low 60s spread as drier air heats more effectively but that's going to raise LCLs and we will want to see some moisture advection to bring dews up through the evening

Interested in any special 18z soundings we get; if deeper moisture makes it into northern MS, and with a strong LLJ later I don't see why it couldn't, looks very dangerous
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LLJ will be ripping, shouldn't be a issue for WAA
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
LLJ will be ripping, shouldn't be a issue for WAA
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As I said earlier though, the low-level mass response being no less robust than previously advertised (which it looks like it should still be) will be critical for the moisture recovery, so that might have been responsible for confusing the HRRR.
 
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