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Severe WX March 21-23 2022

Only 12 total reports since 12Z (7 AM CDT) so far, unless SPC is way behind updating the LSRs, this event actually has been underperforming. Would have expected a lot more wind reports (solid streaks of blue extending from LA to where the line is now).

JAN has a lot of reports that haven't been sent yet.
 
Alabama concern: The Mississippi cells look to be on track to enter W. Alabama shortly. I'm am showing 72/65 for Livingston, Alabama. That's a ripe environment. I will say other readings in W. Alabama (Winfield, Tuscaloosa, etc) are showing lower dewpoints (62 & 61).

The Livingston area readings seem to be somewhat of an outlier but nevertheless - could be a problem area.
 
Here is the discussion on that Meso Discussion:

Mesoscale Discussion 0311
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

Areas affected...Western Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 62...

Valid 221956Z - 222200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 62 continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for damaging wind gusts and QLCS tornadoes
will continue into western Alabama this afternoon. The threat will
generally be greater in west-central Alabama where moisture/buoyancy
is greater.

DISCUSSION...Storms within central/eastern Mississippi have largely
remained linear this afternoon. There are some discrete cells ahead
of the the primary line. The most substantial of these discrete
storms is moving northeast through Kemper County, MS and has
recently shown a TDS on KDGX radar. The overall expectation is for
these cells to be overtaken by the line in the next 60-90 minutes.
Going forward, wind damage and QLCS tornadoes are expected to be the
primary threats as convection moves into western Alabama. The
environment ahead of the convective line has been able to warm to
near 80 F in several places. However, moisture return in Alabama has
been much less than in Mississippi. Consequently, MLCAPE values have
remained from 300-400 J/kg in northern Alabama to 500-700 in
west-central Alabama. Due to the forward speed of the line, it is
uncertain how much further destabilization can occur through the
afternoon. In any event, some potential for damaging wind gusts and
QLCS tornadoes will exist given the strong low-level winds and
low-level hodograph turning observed in region VWPs.
 
Still may see discrete cells fire on the south end of things. Outflow/frontal intersection a potential trigger per SPC.

 
I'm not overly concerned about this event for Alabama. Seems to be underperforming and now the whole thing is rolling into a QLCS. Probably will get a few tornado warnings and maybe a couple EF-0/EF-1 tornadoes, but I doubt this will be a significant outbreak.
 
By the time this hits I-65 I think we are talking about heavy rain & strong straight-line winds. Obviously embedded tornadoes can't be completely ruled out. But the dynamics, Bham still 76/58, just aren't there for discreet supercells this far east. Even Tuscaloosa, usually considerably more humid than Bham has a dewpoint of 61. I think SW winds would've given more conducive conditions for an outbreak here. But its still early in the severe season. Just cause AL doesnt get hammered here doesnt mean were safe thru May.
 
TOR for Scooba, MS:

668
WFUS54 KJAN 222042
TORJAN
MSC069-222145-
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0024.220322T2042Z-220322T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Jackson MS
342 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Eastern Kemper County in east central Mississippi...

* Until 445 PM CDT.

* At 341 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near De Kalb, or 10 miles north of Meridian Station,
moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Porterville around 345 PM CDT.
Electric Mills around 350 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Scooba.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3277 8837 3258 8855 3271 8874 3293 8856
3293 8835
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 216DEG 42KT 3270 8859

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

JNE
 
TOR for Meridian, MS:

635
WFUS54 KJAN 222046
TORJAN
MSC023-069-075-222145-
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0025.220322T2046Z-220322T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Jackson MS
346 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southeastern Kemper County in east central Mississippi...
North central Clarke County in east central Mississippi...
Eastern Lauderdale County in east central Mississippi...

* Until 445 PM CDT.

* At 346 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Zero, or 9 miles south of Meridian, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Zero and Increase around 350 PM CDT.
Marion and Alamucha around 400 PM CDT.
Toomsuba and Kewanee around 405 PM CDT.
Lauderdale and Meridian Station around 410 PM CDT.
Tamola around 420 PM CDT.
Porterville around 425 PM CDT.
Electric Mills around 435 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include I 20
Welcome Center At Cuba.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3245 8840 3216 8859 3218 8878 3282 8858
3279 8836
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 205DEG 41KT 3225 8866

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

TW
 
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