Severe WX March 21-23 2022

[TornadoFan]

That's quite the hodograph.

 

[warneagle]

I was just about to post that sounding. Yikes.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

LLJ issues perhaps overdone on the models? If so, watch out.

Edit: SPC says get ready for show time...

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 292

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

DISCUSSION...Recent mesoanalysis shows a strong (i.e. 50-55 kt at
850 mb) low-level jet throughout much of the warm sector. This
mesoanalysis is verified by area 18Z soundings, with CRP and FWD
sampling 55 kt and 65 kt at 850 mb, respectively. Some convective
contamination may have contributed to the stronger winds at FWD, but
the general expectation is for these strong winds to persist
throughout the warm sector this afternoon and evening.

 

[MattPetrulli]

Given 12z and 18z HRRR tomorrow, I think a convective evolution similar to 4/12/20 may occur where a QLCS producing tornadoes moves through LA/MS through morning and afternoon and renegade supercells form and show the highest tornado threat.


Just comparing purely from a convective evolution standpoint. I think the convective similarities ends with GA/TN and eastward

 

[Tennie]

The first TOR of the day is near Breckenridge, TX:

637
WFUS54 KFWD 212006
TORFWD
TXC237-363-429-503-212030-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0002.220321T2006Z-220321T2030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
306 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southeastern Young County in north central Texas...
Southwestern Jack County in north central Texas...
Northeastern Stephens County in north central Texas...
Northwestern Palo Pinto County in north central Texas...

* Until 330 PM CDT.

* At 306 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Possum Kingdom State Park, or 15 miles east of
Breckenridge, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Possum Kingdom State Park around 315 PM CDT.
Graham around 330 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile
home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and
protect yourself from flying debris.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3270 9859 3281 9874 3327 9855 3308 9818
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 206DEG 43KT 3282 9865

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

$$

Gordon

 

[Timbo64]

I'm a railfan and I watch a lot of railroad webcams on both paid and free websites.
With severe weather forecasted for Texas, here are a few free Texas RR webcams that some might be interested in bookmarking.

Fort Worth
Big Sandy
Greenville
Quanah

If these links are not allowed, let me know and I'll delete this post.

 

[TornadoFan]

Tornado watch out. 70/50 probs.

 

[warneagle]

Tornado watch is up. 70/50.

 

[Jacob]

Large TDS and very strong velocity returns on the storm SW of Jacksboro, TX

 

[Tennie]

I think we got a tornado down near Bryson, TX:

 

[TornadoFan]

I think we got a tornado down near Bryson, TX:

View attachment 12684

Yeah, it's a TORR now.

 

[Tennie]

That thing is closing in on Jacksboro!

 

[bwalk]

 

[TornadoFan]

Now a PDS warning. No large or dangerous wording.

 

[atrainguy]

 

[TornadoFan]

Major damage reported around Jacksboro.

 

[bwalk]

Now a PDS warning. No large or dangerous wording.

I don't know re the PDS. Maybe because it was heading straight for Jacksboro? The cell looks to be over a sparsely populated area for the next 15-20 minutes. Also appears to be rain-wrapped which is not good.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Yikes, did not expect things to escalate so quickly, especially with the northern storms which were supposed to be in a less favorable environment for significant tornadoes. This outbreak is off to a rough start.

 

[Tennie]

The same storm that hit near Jacksboro looks to be heading for Bowie next.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

Yikes, did not expect things to escalate so quickly, especially with the northern storms which were supposed to be in a less favorable environment for significant tornadoes. This outbreak is off to a rough start.

66/63 when it hit Jacksboro. Not very high of a temperature for what I suspect was a possible EF3+ tornado.