Severe WX March 21-23 2022

[Taylor Campbell]

The moderate will have to be shifted if they keep it, then again I’ve never seen them downgrade from day 3 to a day 1. This looks like a day where the cells that form will get absorbed into the line of the models are correct.

I agree that with the messy storm mode it would put a hamper to the tornado threat.

 

[JBishopwx]

Tuesday :

 

[OHWX97]

06z HRRR is disconcerting.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

One mitigating factor SPC mentions for today is the possibility that the LLJ may outrun the dryline supercells in TX this afternoon, leaving them with less low-level shear.

HRRR keeps suggesting the Tuscaloosa-Birmingham area might have problems tomorrow with a supercell or two moving NNE out of southwest Alabama.

 

[Austin Dawg]

One mitigating factor SPC mentions for today is the possibility that the LLJ may outrun the dryline supercells in TX this afternoon, leaving them with less low-level shear.

HRRR keeps suggesting the Tuscaloosa-Birmingham area might have problems tomorrow with a supercell or two moving NNE out of southwest Alabama.

I hope so. I hope the NAM really has a Monday morning hangover but I'm waiting for the model updates before I start digging a hole. For being in Texas, we don't have very many tornado warnings here on the edge of the Hill Country We do have unreal hail storms. Too much limestone for ground shelters. I just hope we have some hailers and a squall line.

 

[kcyalater]

this has to be the slowest mod risk thread i’ve seen in some time.

 

[Bevo]

Waiting on the new D1. Those cells in central TX have been very consistent long trackers on the models.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Moderate risk for TX incoming.

 

[South AL Wx]

Moderate Risk for portions of TX:

 

[SilentShadow87]

Looks like they're issuing a moderate risk for east Texas.

 

[SilentShadow87]

I agree that with the messy storm mode it would put a hamper to the tornado threat.

Would you say the moderate risk is overdoing it? I'm kind of on the fence about it myself.

 

[JWard87]

Would you say the moderate risk is overdoing it? I'm kind of on the fence about it myself.

I don’t think it is. I’d personally rather them overshoot it a little bit than them underestimate.

Over preparing is not always a bad thing.

I’m in CTX, so we shall see how it all plays out.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Seems like more recent HRRR runs are trending toward less, but potentially more dangerous, convection over Texas today.

Despite the potential issues with the LLJ not being ideally coupled with the ongoing supercells, lots of robust UH streaks on there (including on the 0-3KM product, which unless I'm blind is a new addition within the last few days, I just remember the 2-5KM products until then).

 

[bwalk]

Question:
This model run of the 12z HRRR composite reflectivity shows discrete cells ahead of the main line breaking out all up & down Alabama tomorrow (north to south) - not limited to the SW portion of the state. I'm taking it that the consensus is the best severe/tor dynamics will be limited to the SW part of the state?

 

[Clancy]

Newest D2 slightly expands the MDT and MRGL.

 

[bwalk]

One mitigating factor SPC mentions for today is the possibility that the LLJ may outrun the dryline supercells in TX this afternoon, leaving them with less low-level shear.

HRRR keeps suggesting the Tuscaloosa-Birmingham area might have problems tomorrow with a supercell or two moving NNE out of southwest Alabama.

Good visual look re the LLJ being displaced from the dryline cells in Texas: (credit: Andrew Pritchard)

 

[kcyalater]

Question:
This model run of the 12z HRRR composite reflectivity shows discrete cells ahead of the main line breaking out all up & down Alabama tomorrow (north to south) - not limited to the SW portion of the state. I'm taking it that the consensus is the best severe/tor dynamics will be limited to the SW part of the state?

View attachment 12679

i think it’s going to be really difficult for things to get nasty north of demopolis/centreville

 

[Austin Dawg]

I don’t think it is. I’d personally rather them overshoot it a little bit than them underestimate.

Over preparing is not always a bad thing.

I’m in CTX, so we shall see how it all plays out.

I'm in Leander so I'm in the new moderate risk area too. I told everyone I know to be prepared. We were supposed to have some convection going on already but there has been little rain while the atmosphere continues to get warmer and more humid every minute. NWS said it's 73 degrees with a dewpoint of 72. Dew points this morning were in the 50s.

 

[Fred Gossage]

i think it’s going to be really difficult for things to get nasty north of demopolis/centreville

Mesoscale model data the last 12-18 hrs or so has been trending toward that not being true. There was an overall consensus in the 12z high-res data of 400-700 CAPE getting as far north as the Shoals/Athens/maybe HSV.

 

[TornadoFan]

Here we go.

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 292

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov