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Severe WX March 21-23 2022

Figure it'd be handy to go ahead and post the aerial highlights.

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Timing has jumped around but long range GFS had definitely been interested at times in this 3/17-22 period for some significant action, always a little ominous when there's enough confidence for a D8 (especially one that I am in, oh boy)
 
I'm pretty surprised they did a Day 8 risk. There's a good bit of disagreement with how models and ensemble suites are handling even the basic large scale players. You usually can't even get them to do a Day 4 risk when there's less model disagreement than what we have right now.
 
Fred Gossage said:
I'm pretty surprised they did a Day 8 risk. There's a good bit of disagreement with how models and ensemble suites are handling even the basic large scale players. You usually can't even get them to do a Day 4 risk when there's less model disagreement than what we have right now.
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What have they “sniffed out” that made them jumped on 8 days?
 
Must be something they know that we don't. Either way, regardless, severe weather threat next week with additional threats through at least the next 3 weeks.
 
The usual caveats about it being the GFS at a week out apply, but the forecast soundings are starting to look pretty ominous for next Tuesday. SRH is insane over a wide area on the 18Z run, overlaid with dewpoints from the upper 50s to the upper 60s. As we saw with the 3/5 event, CAPE values are suspect at this range (I'm used to the models overdoing the CAPE in the warm season, but the opposite seems to be more often true in the cool season). This sounding was taken over western Mississippi, pretty classic looking hodograph here.
 

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Satellite view of a few powerful large scale features for this event.

Short term model adjustments with this energy have led to an improved severe weather look in the Day 7-8 forecast.

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1st post here. I can't help but notice the day falling on the 70th and 90th anniversaries of the Mid-South 1952 outbreak and the Super Outbreak of 1932. And given we're in a La Nina that's moving more west-based... I don't like the looks heading into April/May.
 
I still don't understand how there was enough confidence to flag a risk at Day 8 with such significant overall model disagreement, when they have refused to do Day 4 risks and even Day 3 SLGT risks for setups with less model disagreement than this has had. Having said that, the GEFS, EPS, and Canadian ensemble solutions aren't that dissimilar from the operational GFS setup that has been evolving consistently for the past several runs... and it's a road map toward this indeed potentially being a respectable severe weather threat Tuesday into Tuesday night over much of classic Dixie Alley. A substantial risk on Tuesday would be tied to the idea of the weekend trough over the Atlantic being more progressive with time and also for the upper low to open into more of an open trough that phases back into the main upper jet. If those things don't happen: 1. You're very likely not going to have adequate moisture return for the type of severe weather risk being advertised. 2. The dynamic support will likely support not only a farther south surface low track that would hurt destabilization, but would also likely keep the mid/upper jet behind the front, overtop the cold sector, instead of punching across the warm sector and crossing the low-level jet axis.
 
The Craven-Wiedenfeld (CWASP) parameters for Tuesday 3/22. The 75-85 numbers are concerning - though will likely change between now & then. Someone called this map a "rainbow of doom" for next Tuesday. This system moves East into Miss/Bama the next day or therabouts.

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bwalk said:
The Craven-Wiedenfeld (CWASP) parameters for Tuesday 3/22. The 75-85 numbers are concerning - though will likely change between now & then. Someone called this map a "rainbow of doom" for next Tuesday. This system moves East into Miss/Bama the next day or therabouts.

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Any MS/AL threat would be Tuesday/Tuesday night. It's just that most events don't happen in the composite parameter max itself. They often happen in the gradient zones, especially the north/east sides of instability-driven parameter maxes. Tuesday's threat likely starts in Arkansas and Louisiana early in the day and then spreads across MS, AL, TN in the afternoon and evening, and then GA overnight if it is able to hold together... at least as it stands now.
 
Glad I finally got home today to start watching this unfold. I went into the hospital with a severe infection on 3-7 So far I am seeing signs of severe weather in my neck of the woods the on Monday. I can't remember an event targeted at such a large area over a couple of days and it looks like there may be a risk the next couple of days

May you live in interesting times....
 
3 days now (D5, 6 and 7) with risk highlights.

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Anyone notice the model runs seem to be slower to load on Pivotal Weather the last few weeks or so? It's 10:20 CDT, or 3 hours and 20 minutes after the 12Z GFS initialized. I feel like in the past, the run would have at least started to populate with the first few forecast hours by now. Yet currently nothing is available from that run, and it's been like that for the last week or two at least.

*Edit: Finally coming in.
 
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