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Severe WX March 21-23 2022

CheeselandSkies said:
Anyone notice the model runs seem to be slower to load on Pivotal Weather the last few weeks or so? It's 10:20 CDT, or 3 hours and 20 minutes after the 12Z GFS initialized. I feel like in the past, the run would have at least started to populate with the first few forecast hours by now. Yet currently nothing is available from that run, and it's been like that for the last week or two at least.
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yeah, seems like keeps getting slower n slower to me
 
It's been quite a while since this area of Texas has had a potential event like this forecasted this far out. I don't recall ever having seen a risk area put up on D7, much less a 30% on D5 for us.
Whether or not the whole DFW metro comes into play for a stronger threat I think will come down to how far north the instability will reach. Still think we shouldn't let our guard down especially with us being several days out. Waco / College Station / Killeen / Belton should definitely be watching.
 
Today's 12Z run of the GFS actually looks more ominous for Tuesday than Monday; mainly because the model breaks out so much convection across TX/OK/AR/LA that it tamps the instability down. In any case this system looks to be a prolific rain-maker, which is good because La Ninas seem predisposed to dry springs in the central and southeastern CONUS, but flooding might become a concern.
 
The GFS won’t back down for Monday and Tuesday.
That’s a monstrous tornado outbreak. Violent tornadoes a real possibility. EURO not as robust, but still a significant tornado event.
 
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Scott81 said:
Is north alabama at risk?
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Certainly within the realm of possibility. The warm sector appears to have expanded a bit northward on recent GFS runs, although the degree of instability is still in question.

The broad area of classic sickle-shaped hodographs is still showing for Tuesday afternoon, and has shifted a bit eastward from earlier runs (more MS/AL instead of AR/LA/western MS). That reminds me, I gotta watch James Spann's Weather Xtreme video from this morning.
 
This is the first time where I’m actually nervous for a severe weather event, and the possibilities this system has to produce, it’s still a ways away but, something about this event seems different to me than the 5/20/2019 during this time before it…..
 
I know it's easy to get caught up in CWASP maps showing high values and models showing a good combo of respectable instability and favorable hodographs, but even if those things end up being present, there's still much much more to a significant severe weather event than that. You are very hard-pressed to get adequate moisture return when the western North Atlantic has the digging trough action just off the East Coast that it does. Sure, the GFS tempers this problem by being more progressive, but it is mostly out on a limb here in that regard. I had originally thought the Euro may be overdoing that troughing and how it lingers, but now that we are getting the NAM into the range of seeing how that troughing behaves out there Sunday night into Monday morning, it is closer to the Euro idea than the GFS idea.

But even if you hypothetically get a solution closer to the GFS where that troughing moves out and moisture returns adequately, there are other issues with the setup... such as a fairly significant plume of mid-level moisture overtop the warm sector, shortwave ridging overtop the low-level jet axis during the modeled "go time", and a meridional nature to the upper low with the main mid/upper jet core hanging back behind the surface front instead of crossing overtop the warm sector and intersecting the low-level jet axis. Things things all affect warm sector contamination, storm mode, and the ability to have enough large scale ascent in the open warm sector and low-level jet axis ahead of the front to develop sustained discrete storms.

Could Tuesday end up being a significant severe weather event? Yes, but the GFS is the most bullish solution, and even it has multiple problems on even the larger scale for a major tornado setup... much less trying to figure out smaller scale details that will ultimately make or break the event. Let's calm the hype a bit and step back to reality...
 
Fred Gossage said:
I know it's easy to get caught up in CWASP maps showing high values and models showing a good combo of respectable instability and favorable hodographs, but even if those things end up being present, there's still much much more to a significant severe weather event than that. You are very hard-pressed to get adequate moisture return when the western North Atlantic has the digging trough action just off the East Coast that it does. Sure, the GFS tempers this problem by being more progressive, but it is mostly out on a limb here in that regard. I had originally thought the Euro may be overdoing that troughing and how it lingers, but now that we are getting the NAM into the range of seeing how that troughing behaves out there Sunday night into Monday morning, it is closer to the Euro idea than the GFS idea.

But even if you hypothetically get a solution closer to the GFS where that troughing moves out and moisture returns adequately, there are other issues with the setup... such as a fairly significant plume of mid-level moisture overtop the warm sector, shortwave ridging overtop the low-level jet axis during the modeled "go time", and a meridional nature to the upper low with the main mid/upper jet core hanging back behind the surface front instead of crossing overtop the warm sector and intersecting the low-level jet axis. Things things all affect warm sector contamination, storm mode, and the ability to have enough large scale ascent in the open warm sector and low-level jet axis ahead of the front to develop sustained discrete storms.

Could Tuesday end up being a significant severe weather event? Yes, but the GFS is the most bullish solution, and even it has multiple problems on even the larger scale for a major tornado setup... much less trying to figure out smaller scale details that will ultimately make or break the event. Let's calm the hype a bit and step back to reality...
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Think it’s the 30 percent 4 day got some on the edge, but i. Think things are fixing get cranking this week severe wx wise, as we are starting to head into the heart of the season .
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
Think it’s the 30 percent 4 day got some on the edge, but i. Think things are fixing get cranking this week severe wx wise, as we are starting to head into the heart of the season .
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The Day 5 outlook with the 30% risk explicitly talks about strong tornadoes being possible. That's one thing. I'm specifically addressing the Tuesday hype for the local area here. It could still be a significant event over here, but it's NOT a clear cut setup, and there ARE multiple problems with the setup in even the most bullish of available model solutions.
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
Think it’s the 30 percent 4 day got some on the edge, but i. Think things are fixing get cranking this week severe wx wise, as we are starting to head into the heart of the season .
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I can understand in the tempering of predictions with the more recent past of fizzles when it looked like a possible major event... but... the GFS has been decent the past few months when being the outlier or I'm still addled and remembering incorrectly

My gut usually leads me in the proper direction about important things and my "ESP N" says we are due for a busy, busy spring for severe weather in general whatever the La ____ is. ;)
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Perhaps getting into excessive speculation at this point, but does anyone think next Tuesday could match or exceed either of the two March high risk events in 2021?
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3/17 woudn't take too much to overcome, despite 61 tor reports and 33 actual tors during the day, only 4 EF2S and a lot of tors were short lived and weak. However, you could argue these tors occurred over more rural areas but that's another discussion.
3/25 had less tors (20) but more siggys/intense tors (9) so it's kind of a like pick your poison kind of thing.
Hard to say this far out, obviously but the ceiling isn't really super high with either of these events and in my unprofessional opinion they are surpassable/obtainable.
 
Yea, something's up with the models, the CIPS analog site isn't showing today's data either.
 
Finally got a look at modeling for this area of N AL Tuesday night; looks like increasing agreement on general timing but also seems like the best upper level energy will be lagging; Euro has an impressive low level jet (nearly 60kt SSE at 925mb on 06z Wednesday, but thermos lag significantly, not sure which model has a handle on that) while the GFS is less impressive and veers/weakens ahead of the line; UKMET is closer to Euro but still a ways out. Still tornado-capable soundings all around. Now to look at the likely significant issues between now and then... kind of a sensory overload with this much to keep track of in just a one week span
 
Equus said:
Finally got a look at modeling for this area of N AL Tuesday night; looks like increasing agreement on general timing but also seems like the best upper level energy will be lagging; Euro has an impressive low level jet (nearly 60kt SSE at 925mb on 06z Wednesday, but thermos lag significantly, not sure which model has a handle on that) while the GFS is less impressive and veers/weakens ahead of the line; UKMET is closer to Euro but still a ways out. Still tornado-capable soundings all around. Now to look at the likely significant issues between now and then... kind of a sensory overload with this much to keep track of in just a one week span
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Welcome to a La Nina March in Dixie Alley...again.
 
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