Archive March 18-20th, 2018 Severe Weather

Ripley, MS Hail

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60 degrees and dewpoint of 59 in Huntsville under cloudy skies. Gotta be honest, I don't know as much as alot you you, but this doesn't look or FEEL like tornado weather.
 
60 degrees and dewpoint of 59 in Huntsville under cloudy skies. Gotta be honest, I don't know as much as alot you you, but this doesn't look or FEEL like tornado weather.

The warm front is approaching rapidly. It doesn't matter what it "feels" like right now. The warm front arriving around 12-1 has been in fhe forecast for days..
 
60 degrees and dewpoint of 59 in Huntsville under cloudy skies. Gotta be honest, I don't know as much as alot you you, but this doesn't look or FEEL like tornado weather.

Unfortunately there will be a window for plenty of warming and destabilization to occur. These close range models which show the deteriorating atmosphere are very sophisticated so just be alert and know the potential upcoming.
 
With us being at 68° here in McMinnville Tennessee ahead of the warm front really has me concerned for Central middle Tennessee. I could be dead wrong but my got feeling tells me this is going to be bad for this area
 
60 degrees and dewpoint of 59 in Huntsville under cloudy skies. Gotta be honest, I don't know as much as alot you you, but this doesn't look or FEEL like tornado weather.

yea its bc we have been north of the front all day until now...watch for the dew to start going up over the next few hours
 
I know the big threat this afternoon in North AL is the potential for long-track tornadoes, as evidenced by the Day 1 Moderate being based mostly on the tornado probabilities map, but don't sleep on the hail threat either. We've known large hail would be in the cards even before the tornado threat fully materialized.HailThreat3.19.PNG
 
Showers over Fayette county heading this way. Will probably call it an early day since it'll be too wet to work if they reach us... so I can watch the storms unfold from home, heh
 
Mixing might not be as much of an issue now...

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Yep. Seems that won't be as much of a factor as it seemed. That's also why I think the MOD will get expanded a bit in the afternoon update. I didn't see any SPC language about upgrading even a very limited area to high, so I think they will just refine the MOD a bit and maybe expand the ENH some to the SW.

I think their thoughts about sharp limitations to the SW aren't off base but I don't see it quite as limited at the exact point they drew. Do you think they will fill in a bit to the SW? Perhaps a hair N as well.
 
I know the big threat this afternoon in North AL is the potential for long-track tornadoes, as evidenced by the Day 1 Moderate being based mostly on the tornado probabilities map, but don't sleep on the hail threat either. We've known large hail would be in the cards even before the tornado threat fully materialized.View attachment 524

True, both HUN and BMX have been advertising the potential for very large hail today (tennis ball size).
 
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