Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020
Valid 131630Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TX...
...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes, large hail, and isolated severe wind gusts are expected after 2 PM CDT into tonight across parts of west Texas and southeast New Mexico.
...West TX and southeast NM...
The greatest severe weather potential should remain spatially confined to portions of the Permian Basin where an upgrade to Enhanced Risk appears warranted.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form during the mid afternoon over eastern slopes of higher terrain across the western parts of the outlook area, from southeast NM through the TX Trans-Pecos. This activity should develop along the northwest extent of the surface baroclinic zone characterized by mid to upper 50s surface dew points, aided by a combination of weak upslope flow and heating of higher terrain.
A pocket of MLCAPE between 750-1500 J/kg should be present by peak heating across the Pecos Valley. Veering with height of the low-level wind profile beneath very strong speed shear above 700 mb will yield a rather elongated hodograph, supportive of splitting supercells. Potential will exist for a couple long-track supercells spreading east along the west-east oriented portion of the surface front that is expected to lie along the Concho Valley. Although mid-level lapse rates should not be particularly steep given the positive-tilt of the approaching shortwave trough, 70+ kt effective shear and supercell mode could favor isolated significant severe hail. Tornado potential will probably be maximized across the Pecos Valley and with any supercell that can remain sustained near the front where low-level SRH should be maximized. Increasingly pronounced MLCIN with southern/eastern extent should spatially confine the overall severe threat tonight.
..Grams/Coniglio.. 03/13/2020
