Severe WX March 11 - 12, 2020 Threat (2 Viewers)


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426
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Madison, WI
Cells pushing toward I-65 in KY still struggling. From SPC's 20Z outlook sounds like they expect the main show to be as cells initiate further west (1 SVR currently active along the AR/MO border) and track through the recovering airmass in western KY. I suspect outflow from the SE-moving meatball now passing NE of Paducah will have some sort of influence on what transpires over the next few hours.
 

DRob

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Opelika, AL
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The storm to the east that spawned the short tornado warning is still alive and kicking.


3.12.20-4.46pm-vel.jpeg
 

Taylor Campbell

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Wedowee, AL
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A confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado on the Poplar Bluff storm!
 
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1
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Pittsburgh
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What caused the lack of tornadic development? Instability and shear were really intense, but there were few if any reports of tornadoes. It seemed like every time a storm got warned, it immediately hit an area of more stable air. I'm interested to see what tomorrow will bring in texas
 
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jackson tennessee
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What caused the lack of tornadic development? Instability and shear were really intense, but there were few if any reports of tornadoes. It seemed like every time a storm got warned, it immediately hit an area of more stable air. I'm interested to see what tomorrow will bring in texas
Helicity was lacking a bit for one
 
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Kory

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Tuscaloosa, Alabama
What caused the lack of tornadic development? Instability and shear were really intense, but there were few if any reports of tornadoes. It seemed like every time a storm got warned, it immediately hit an area of more stable air. I'm interested to see what tomorrow will bring in texas
Veered surface winds.
 
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426
Location
Madison, WI
So what happened to the reports of the "large and extremely dangerous tornado" approaching Poplar Bluff, MO; and the fire department reported tornado in Kentucky?
 

DRob

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Opelika, AL
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Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TX...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes, large hail, and isolated severe wind gusts are expected after 2 PM CDT into tonight across parts of west Texas and southeast New Mexico.

...West TX and southeast NM...
The greatest severe weather potential should remain spatially confined to portions of the Permian Basin where an upgrade to Enhanced Risk appears warranted.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form during the mid afternoon over eastern slopes of higher terrain across the western parts of the outlook area, from southeast NM through the TX Trans-Pecos. This activity should develop along the northwest extent of the surface baroclinic zone characterized by mid to upper 50s surface dew points, aided by a combination of weak upslope flow and heating of higher terrain.

A pocket of MLCAPE between 750-1500 J/kg should be present by peak heating across the Pecos Valley. Veering with height of the low-level wind profile beneath very strong speed shear above 700 mb will yield a rather elongated hodograph, supportive of splitting supercells. Potential will exist for a couple long-track supercells spreading east along the west-east oriented portion of the surface front that is expected to lie along the Concho Valley. Although mid-level lapse rates should not be particularly steep given the positive-tilt of the approaching shortwave trough, 70+ kt effective shear and supercell mode could favor isolated significant severe hail. Tornado potential will probably be maximized across the Pecos Valley and with any supercell that can remain sustained near the front where low-level SRH should be maximized. Increasingly pronounced MLCIN with southern/eastern extent should spatially confine the overall severe threat tonight.

..Grams/Coniglio.. 03/13/2020

3.13.20-1.27pm-EnhTor.png
 
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