Severe WX March 11 - 12, 2020 Threat (2 Viewers)


DRob

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Opelika, AL
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Mesoscale Discussion 0177
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020

Areas affected...Portions of southwest Texas and southeast New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 131849Z - 132045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity in the next 1-2 hours and will pose a threat for severe hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. A Tornado Watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...Low-level upslope flow and heating over much of the high terrain of northern Mexico, far west Texas, and southern New Mexico is contributing to widely-scattered thunderstorm development over the western portion of the MCD area. The coverage and intensity of these thunderstorms is expected to gradually increase over the next 1-2 hours. Maintenance of these storms will be supported by an area of upper 50s surface dewpoints along/southwest of a quasi-stationary/warm front that is draped from near San Angelo, TX, west then northwestward to near Fort Sumner, NM. The front is not expected to move northward much throughout the afternoon.

Although mid-level lapse rates will remain modest, heating of the relatively moist boundary layer is expected to continue throughout the afternoon and will result in large enough low-level lapse rates to support MLCAPE of 750-1500 J/kg along and south/southwest of the front. MLCIN will range from near zero over the western portion of the MCD area to -150 J/kg initially over the eastern portion of the MCD area, but most of the MLCIN south/southwest of the front is expected to erode by mid afternoon. Furthermore, sufficient MUCAPE will be present north of the front to maintain storms that develop along (or cross over) the front throughout the afternoon. Very long, nearly-straight-line hodographs will support splitting supercells with a severe hail threat on both sides of the front. Given the expected maintenance of the stable layer north of the front, the severe wind threat should be limited to areas of steep low-level lapse rates along and south/southwest of the front, with the tornado threat initially limited to storms that can tap the higher SRH within easterly surface winds along/south of the front.

Given the expected evolution of severe thunderstorms this afternoon, a Tornado Watch is likely in the next 1-2 hours.

..Coniglio/Grams.. 03/13/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 31560527 32110562 32850567 33410557 33750525 34120475
34080418 33910379 33440323 32640263 32110210 31930202
31570178 31080172 30580178 30370196 29980261 29920343
30360441 30890487 31240508 31560527

3.13.20-3.00pm-meso-disc.jpeg
 
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DRob

Member
Messages
13
Location
Opelika, AL
Special Affiliations
SKYWARN® Volunteer
This tornado is still going, been warned since 9:15pm CST

--------------

Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
915 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020

The National Weather Service in Midland has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southwestern Ector County in western Texas...
Northeastern Ward County in western Texas...
Southeastern Winkler County in western Texas...
Northwestern Crane County in western Texas...

* Until 1000 PM CDT.

* At 915 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Monahans, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Ector, northeastern Ward, southeastern Winkler and northwestern Crane Counties, including the following locations... Monahans Sandhills State Park and Roy Hurd Memorial Airport.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 78 and 95.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3154 10291 3169 10305 3175 10272 3160 10262
TIME...MOT...LOC 0215Z 247DEG 43KT 3164 10287

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

3.13.20-9.22pm-Tor-Warn.jpeg

3.13.20-9.42pm-Tor-Warn.jpeg
 
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