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January 23-25th Winter Wx

sak said:
when you say they missed this winter storm prediction... what exactly do you mean? saying there was a chance of ice 6 days out and then after ingesting more data calling for just rain from 4 days out on is not missing a forecast (if in fact, it just rains).
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What I mean is, on Tuesday, telling us how confident they are in the models they show us, and within 48 hours being a wildly different forecast. I mean, not even in the same universe. Now they put the same models on social media with the alarming graphics that the general public barely understands without really pointing out that these are the models that just whiffed for our area by a country mile. People that come to this board know the deal, but we aren't their target. They already are securing their viewership for the next 10 days with these same models that weren't even close on this one for their market.
 
Honestly surprised we haven't shifted back south a little given the synoptic setup but I'll take it; three inches of cold rain is certainly a far better deal than every power line in the county covered in a half inch of ice. Public perception is going to take a hit because a whole lot of people don't understand modeling, but alas, such is the pain of weather forecasting
 
pritchlaw said:
What I mean is, on Tuesday, telling us how confident they are in the models they show us, and within 48 hours being a wildly different forecast. I mean, not even in the same universe. Now they put the same models on social media with the alarming graphics that the general public barely understands without really pointing out that these are the models that just whiffed for our area by a country mile. People that come to this board know the deal, but we aren't their target. They already are securing their viewership for the next 10 days with these same models that weren't even close on this one for their market.
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I"ve already seen it. People who think the forecast set in stone and then just completely zone out.

People. Do. Not. Understand. How. Weather. Forecasting. Works.
 
cniemczura said:
I"ve already seen it. People who think the forecast set in stone and then just completely zone out.

People. Do. Not. Understand. How. Weather. Forecasting. Works.
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Happy Dance GIF
 
Now the talking heads are saying the ice for North Alabama is coming Sunday when the temps drop. I doubt the moisture will be significantly potent enough to matter.
 
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bckhd2 said:
I thought this was interesting as well. I guess the Euro is known to handle the wedge poorly. All my life here I’ve learned never to bet against the wedge.

FFC does have my area at 0.15” of ice with temps up to 40° on Sunday, so it looks like we’re trending in the right direction.
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There is no way it goes to 40 on Sunday. Temps are going to be crashing.
 
That's one thing that will never change regardless how much we try to pull it through. People see these forecasts as expected. If they're not in glossy colors, the event suddenly doesn't seem "impactful" or "worrying"

People think being outside of a high risk when it comes to tornadoes means they're all good when in reality, they're not. The human brain reacts more cautionary when presented with a color usually presented with danger. These forecasts are not for granted, but people will always act like it was expected. There's nothing guaranteed at this moment even despite how good we have a gist out of this, there will always be something to turn the tables and then the cycle changes up. People are underestimating this system just because it isn't the major Dixie snow plower it was expected to be. In my opinion, the freezing rain is probably the worst option over all of that with how trends appear currently. Large swath of 6+ in snow from N OK all the way to areas like Kentucky going into the NYC vicinity and widespread freezing rain impacts in the NE GA/Carolinas vicinity plus N MS and LA as discussed many times already. We still have plenty of time. Winter weather is FAR more tricky to forecast then severe and the consistent switch up/hype on social media doesn't make it any easier to message
 
pritchlaw said:
Fox 6 in Birmingham, apparently with no self-awareness, has already started showing graphics on snow in Alabama NEXT weekend. They haven't even finished completely missing this winter storm prediction and they are on to the next one. Clownshoes.
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Yep! That's why I don't watch major cities weather forecasts. They're job is to keep you tuned in as much as possible for advertising revenue. Even if the lead meteorologist wants to give a different forecast he probably couldn't if it doesn't guarantee more viewers. It's like clout chasers on the internet using wording that makes it sound like the end of the world in their titles. Imagine that. News companies putting advertising dollars before public safety. That's why I don't listen to them anymore. It's progressively gotten worse over the years too.
 
Ars4ua said:
The scary part about this is, there is a good chance that there are people that THINK oh we are not in the pink so we are good, and we all know weather NEVER goes as planned. There will be shifts the day of the event.
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Then you have those that see they are in the pink and know they are good because the warm air will win out…
 
bckhd2 said:
Yeah, the cutoff between 0.15" and 0.40" is super narrow and cuts basically right through the heart of metro ATL almost right over my house. Unfortunately, like you said, the wedge is so hard to predict that I think there are going to be a lot of people in the area surprised on Sunday.
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I'm hoping I get a taste of that wedge in AL ! Snow.
 
Ars4ua said:
The scary part about this is, there is a good chance that there are people that THINK oh we are not in the pink so we are good, and we all know weather NEVER goes as planned. There will be shifts the day of the event.
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i agree. i also think james spann just basically tossing all models but the Euro out the window might be a mistake. Even if the Euro winds up being closer to the pin, if the warm nose is even a little overdone on the Euro... there could be quite a few counties that see some real icing issues and a few that get crippling effects.
missing by just 2 or 3 degrees and ~50 miles could be a huge difference in places like Gadsden, Scottsboro, and Haleyville.
 
Glad it's looking better for Alabamians, but still rather worried about Atlanta Metro and northeast. Situation in the mountains could be really nasty.
 
pritchlaw said:
What I mean is, on Tuesday, telling us how confident they are in the models they show us, and within 48 hours being a wildly different forecast. I mean, not even in the same universe. Now they put the same models on social media with the alarming graphics that the general public barely understands without really pointing out that these are the models that just whiffed for our area by a country mile. People that come to this board know the deal, but we aren't their target. They already are securing their viewership for the next 10 days with these same models that weren't even close on this one for their market.
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Spann jumped all over the models all agreeing on Monday and it was set in stone we were getting a potentially severe ice storm.
 
TVILLE96 said:
Spann jumped all over the models all agreeing on Monday and it was set in stone we were getting a potentially severe ice storm.
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Oh now I’m convinced that it’s going to be Armageddon if Spann has his suspenders showing. Get that bread and milk, if there’s any left after the run on the Piggly Wigglys.
 
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