• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

January 23-25th Winter Wx

Blountwolf said:
I think the chance for blown forecasts is off the charts with this one, both human and computer. I expect reality to slap some folks.
Click to expand...
Yes. I just read a station is already forecasting next weeks wintertime weather. Talk about being a glutton for punishment. The egg will still be on their faces from this stacked deck they’ve been dealing all week. Live by the model, and be made a fool out of it.
 
TVILLE96 said:
He did a funny short/video on calling his stock broker about buying bread stock before going on air with a winter forecast.
Click to expand...
Yeah, he should have to pay people that were foolish enough to listen to his forecasts.
 
I don't scrutinize the models like some, but the difference with this event was that every reliable model was showing a horrendous ice storm across much of the northern half of Alabama. What should the forecasters have done? This wasn't a case where the European said rain and the GFS said ice, and forecasters were taking the GFS ball and running with it too soon.
 
N4GKS said:
Yeah, he should have to pay people that were foolish enough to listen to his forecasts.
Click to expand...
Can you knock it off? I realize you must have a grudge against either weather models or the tv weather enterprise as a whole considering you’ve posted non-stop about it for at least an hour.

If you do have an issue, you’re totally free to do that. Go make your own thread crusading against what you see as the all greedy local tv revenue scheme. However, stop derailing this thread with your “dear diary” posts.

This event still has a ways to go and for some they are receiving important updates here. Let’s not turn it into a crusade against models thread.
 
Mike S said:
If you create a thread of nothing but your own personal weather forecasts for a specified area, I will pin the thread and leave it up through the end of May to wrap up winter and get through severe season in the southeast.

I get to keep score.
Click to expand...
I say temps in North Alabama won’t plunge until Sunday, and the moisture will be gone before it does. All we get is rain. I’ll live with it if I’m wrong, but I’m confident.
 
Baxter said:
The "wedge" is a different beast in GA than Alabama. I have seen Atlanta 30 degrees colder than Birmingham sometimes.
Click to expand...
Definitely. My parents moved to Atlanta in 1986 after I had grown up mainly in Memphis and New Orleans. I didn't know what a wedge was until a drizzly AUGUST day there with cool temperatures (maybe even upper 50's, although my mind may be exaggerating how cool). I had never experienced anything like that. Then I lived in Durham, NC for two years in the 1990's and REALLY got introduced to the wedge!
 
Baxter said:
The "wedge" is a different beast in GA than Alabama. I have seen Atlanta 30 degrees colder than Birmingham sometimes.
Click to expand...
You see this a lot during severe season; the wedge often helps diminish significant threats in the ATL metro especially in early spring versus Bham always seeming to be under the gun for tornadoes
 
ColdFront said:
Can you knock it off? I realize you must have a grudge against either weather models or the tv weather enterprise as a whole considering you’ve posted non-stop about it for at least an hour.

If you do have an issue, you’re totally free to do that. Go make your own thread crusading against what you see as the all greedy local tv revenue scheme. However, stop derailing this thread with your “dear diary” posts.

This event still has a ways to go and for some they are receiving important updates here. Let’s not turn it into a crusade against models thread.
Click to expand...
I have no grudge. I’ve been a member here since 2017, and until I violate the rules, you mind your posts and I’ll mind mine.
 
bckhd2 said:
You see this a lot during severe season; the wedge often helps diminish significant threats in the ATL metro especially in early spring versus Bham always seeming to be under the gun for tornadoes
Click to expand...
Yep! It's a major boon in protecting us during severe weather season, very reliable at stunting instability via WAA.
 
1769104674179.pngOut west, the Baja low is easy to spot. It’s closed, well organized, and already showing a dry slot curling around the back side. That dry air tells you the system has matured. Lows that look like this before they start moving east usually spell trouble. To the north, the Arctic air shows up as a broad, smooth mass sliding south out of Canada. There’s very little texture to it, and that’s typical of cold this dense and dry. It undercuts warmer air instead of mixing with it, and once it settles in, it tends to stay put longer than forecast. Between those two features is where this storm takes shape. Southern stream energy is lifting out of northern Mexico, while the northern stream digs just enough to allow the two to interact instead of staying separate. You can see the gradient tightening from Texas through the Tennessee Valley and up the East Coast. That’s the zone where lift, moisture, and cold air all get forced together, and that’s where winter storms almost always turn complicated. This is why winter weather can’t be understood by models alone. Models offer scenarios. Satellite imagery shows what’s already happening. The cold air is advancing. The southern system is organized. The moisture feed is in place. From here on out, the uncertainty lives in the details - how far north the warm air noses in aloft, how fast the cold air bleeds south at the surface, and where snow gives way to sleet and ice. Winter storms reward attention. You watch how quickly the Baja low opens up, how clean the phasing becomes, and how stubborn the cold air is when warmer air tries to overrun it. In my experience, as one gets closer to the event, by the time the models finish running and the output comes out, much of the outcome has already been decided overhead.

From my point of view looking at it - both the Baja low and the Artic high are stout. The chance of this "fizzling" are basically zero.

If you want to test the models and see how they are handling everything and watch the system evolving, just by looking at the WV loop, here's what to watch:
  • Evolution of the Baja low – watch how quickly it opens up and ejects east. A slower, more coherent ejection favors deeper cyclogenesis downstream.
  • Dry slot integrity – a clean, wrapping dry slot signals strong dynamics and increases the odds of heavier precip and sharper gradients.
  • Southern stream moisture feed – track the continuous plume from the eastern Pacific and Gulf. Breaks or kinks here often mean overdone QPF.
  • Northern stream digging – look for sharpening curvature and height falls diving southeast. Stronger digging supports phasing instead of suppression.
  • Jet coupling – watch for upper-level divergence where the northern and southern jets overlap. That’s where surface lows tend to deepen fastest.
  • Cold air expansion – note how fast the Arctic air presses south and east, especially overnight. Surface obs matter, but WV shows the scale of the air mass.
  • Baroclinic zone tightening – a sharpening WV gradient from the Southern Plains through the Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic flags where precipitation type battles will set up.
  • Dry air intrusion on the warm side – mid-level dry air punching in from the southwest often enhances sleet and freezing rain by disrupting snow growth.
  • Deformation band development – watch for slowing motion and enhanced lift northwest of the surface low, a common signal for heavier, longer-duration snow.
  • Timing vs structure – if the satellite evolution lags or leads the models, trust the structure you can see. Winter storms rarely violate physics just to match a run.


Also - A quick board reminder that most thread-hijacking issues can be solved by your own personal use of the "Ignore" function. Don't add to the clutter in the thread with arguments, just ignore the offender.
 
Last edited:
ColdFront said:
Can you knock it off? I realize you must have a grudge against either weather models or the tv weather enterprise as a whole considering you’ve posted non-stop about it for at least an hour.

If you do have an issue, you’re totally free to do that. Go make your own thread crusading against what you see as the all greedy local tv revenue scheme. However, stop derailing this thread with your “dear diary” posts.

This event still has a ways to go and for some they are receiving important updates here. Let’s not turn it into a crusade against models thread.
Click to expand...
I have no grudge. I’ve been a member here since 2017, and until I violate the rules, you mind your posts, and I’ll mind mine.
 
Bamamuscle said:
They are telling you that they don’t buy the model output verbatim. We’re really close to having an ice storm N of the TN river if the low tracks more S. I’m a bit nervous about this.
Click to expand...
Hopefully not. I’d rather have 10 inches of snow than any ice.
 
It's certainly beginning to get a handle on it, but is likely still underplaying its westward extent and eroding it too much. This will be a very strong wedge based on the HP feeding it, and it will be very hard to dislodge.
 
200w.gif
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top