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Severe WX January 10-12, 2020 Severe Weather Forecast Thread

Kory said:
I don’t think surface temps should be taken verbatim when we’ve seen them verify 3-5+ degrees warmer than the past couple events at this range on the models.

There is going to be some serious WAA going on Saturday as long as there isn’t junk convection in the warm sector.
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That may end up the case.
 
Just keep in mind the Super Tuesday long track tornadoes in Alabama only had 200-400 J/LG CAPE to work with but monster shear. Give me the shear parameters with meager instability. The south makes the most out of those set ups.
 
Basically every model hodo for this event should be thrown into a textbook, probably with the caption "yikes"
 
We're going to be starting from a pretty high place. I'm on the boat that models are undermodeling the lapse rates and surface based temps. Key will be, with regards to lapse rates, how much gets overworked from the convection out west.

But wow, this is astounding.

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Well as of now, the synoptic look almost screams widespread almost "extreme" damaging wind event, with flood concerns. As BMX AFD points out, the winds will most likely "overpower" any updrafts that do form. One thought though is what may occur should any convection form away from the strongest wind fields (Eastern Alabama, into West Georgia to Metro ATL) With QLCS moving into here later in day, a better chance at convection exists, especially if any sunshine occurs.
The other factor(as always) is any meso-features that develop.
 
Kory said:
Just keep in mind the Super Tuesday long track tornadoes in Alabama only had 200-400 J/LG CAPE to work with but monster shear. Give me the shear parameters with meager instability. The south makes the most out of those set ups.
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One thing to remember though is while big events have happened with meager instability, those bigger events probably had it mostly in the 0-3km area. The NAM is respectable there, the Euro is trash. If we start seeing numbers increase there, a more substantial event is likely.
 
Wow! This is way too close to me Friday. I know it is waaay out there but still.
 

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ARCC said:
One thing to remember though is while big events have happened with meager instability, those bigger events probably had it mostly in the 0-3km area. The NAM is respectable there, the Euro is trash. If we start seeing numbers increase there, a more substantial event is likely.
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That is because you’re looking at 2m temps verbatim from a singular model run. NOAA MOS guidance has most of Central Alabama in the low 70s versus upper 60s. That 3-5 degrees will mean the difference and once you modify the sounding to reflect that, it has more respectable instability. You can’t forecast highs in the 70s and then take CAPE values at face value from a model predicting 60s for highs. That just isn’t physically possible.
 
Hey y'all. Been lurking this thread anon for a couple days and figured I'd finally join and make an account. I'm somewhat new to the storm scene but my interest has been piqued since the October 20th storms.

Maybe it's the uncertainties 2 days out, but I've seen a lot of variation with regards to the DFW metroplex involvement in the event. It seems like it'll be one of the first large population centers affected Fri afternoon but looking across reporter outlets I feel hasn't really reflected the potential of the models, especially if cells form ahead of the front.
 
Bevo said:
Hey y'all. Been lurking this thread anon for a couple days and figured I'd finally join and make an account. I'm somewhat new to the storm scene but my interest has been piqued since the October 20th storms.

Maybe it's the uncertainties 2 days out, but I've seen a lot of variation with regards to the DFW metroplex involvement in the event. It seems like it'll be one of the first large population centers affected Fri afternoon but looking across reporter outlets I feel hasn't really reflected the potential of the models, especially if cells form ahead of the front.
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Welcome! Good to have some more representation from Texas.
 
Bevo said:
Hey y'all. Been lurking this thread anon for a couple days and figured I'd finally join and make an account. I'm somewhat new to the storm scene but my interest has been piqued since the October 20th storms.

Maybe it's the uncertainties 2 days out, but I've seen a lot of variation with regards to the DFW metroplex involvement in the event. It seems like it'll be one of the first large population centers affected Fri afternoon but looking across reporter outlets I feel hasn't really reflected the potential of the models, especially if cells form ahead of the front.
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welcome. i lurked for a long time before making an account last year. don't post much because my knowledge is pretty limited, but boy its interesting to read the discussion. sometimes they seem to skew certain areas (ive seen alot of people completely ignore friday afternoon/evening for this event) but it is still interesting and great way to learn :)
 
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