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Severe WX January 10-12, 2020 Severe Weather Forecast Thread

Kory said:
Ummm euro disagrees.
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I thought the Euro has the surface low moving across AL\TN border? Both models agree on low placement. That wouldn't allow much instability north of the Birmingham area basically
 
Kory said:
Ummm euro disagrees.
Click to expand...
One thing that stands out to me, if the models are correct is how easily accessible the high quality low level dewpoints are from the southern gulf....take a look a this from the GFS, not typical for a mid January system to be able to pull 70+ dewpoints that widespread, that far north.
 

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Richardjacks said:
One thing that stands out to me, if the models are correct is how easily accessible the high quality low level dewpoints are from the southern gulf....take a look a this from the GFS, not typical for a mid January system to be able to pull 70+ dewpoints that widespread, that far north.
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Now if that verified I could see some issues
 
Overnight Friday into Saturday morning looks rather problematic for the Arklamiss into W AL with how it sits right now. Might be the best overlap of rich low level moisture and strong low level shear.
 
andyhb said:
Overnight Friday into Saturday morning looks rather problematic for the Arklamiss into W AL with how it sits right now. Might be the best overlap of rich low level moisture and strong low level shear.
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What do you make of the slowing trend across guidance as the trough goes negative tilt? That might bring it through here during better heating hours...surface-3KM lapse rates were not very great when it looked like a 06-12z timeframe.
 
Kory said:
What do you make of the slowing trend across guidance as the trough goes negative tilt? That might bring it through here during better heating hours...surface-3KM lapse rates were not very great when it looked like a 06-12z timeframe.
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This time of year daytime heating is less important, while it can add to the instability, the low sun angle and limited hours doesn't make as much difference compared to later in the season.
 
Kory said:
What do you make of the slowing trend across guidance as the trough goes negative tilt? That might bring it through here during better heating hours...surface-3KM lapse rates were not very great when it looked like a 06-12z timeframe.
Click to expand...
I mean naturally the low level lapse rates will drop with the lack of surface heating/insolation, but forcing for ascent will be increasing and strong low level WAA/moist advection should partially offset.

Saturday could also turn into a real problem should there be slightly less meridional flow aloft. Right now, it looks a bit more linear given the shear vectors off the boundary.
 
Form the NWS SPC:

"Mixed convective modes
are anticipated given the strength of shear, with a QLCS likely
developing ahead of the surface cold front. This will support
damaging gusts and mesovortex tornado potential. Additionally, any
semi-discrete convection that develops ahead of the QLCS will be in
an environment capable of supporting supercells and tornadoes,
especially from east TX through central MS/AL."
 
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